Global Mortality Attributed to Tropical Cyclones: A Prediction Analysis of Historical Data of Australia, Taiwan, and the United States from 1987 to 2016 Público
Tremarelli, Maraia (Spring 2018)
Abstract
Introduction:Disasters are tragic events that affect populations around the world. Tropical cyclones alone have caused more than 1.3 million deaths since 1900 due to their detrimental impact. Risk assessments are the principal tools used to predict future risks of disasters, but they do not consider a great deal of quantitative data, creating insecurity in these predictions. This produces a need to better express the probability of tropical cyclone events and the estimated mortality associated using historical data of these events.
Methods: To estimate past tropical storm events, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)’s Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) was consulted. Storms that hit Australia, Taiwan and the United States from 1987 to 2006 were chosen to have a variety of locations. Values that contained magnitude of the storm, associated deaths and people affected were used as the main predictors to construct the model.
Results: After evaluating the dataset, it was found that the data was unreliable due to an inconsistency of reported data. It was apparent that the discrepancies were too great to construct prediction models due to 55% of the magnitude entries were missing and 49% of the ‘Total affected’ data were missing. Cross-referencing the data with other agencies’ datasets delivered varying reports as well.
Discussion: When analyzing all the data further, it was found that the dataset was unable to provide sufficient results to produce a reliable prediction model. The inconsistencies among different datasets when cross-referencing proves that there is a need to have set criteria that is followed by those who report on disaster data for dependability. Definitions of data are important to better understand where the data comes from and hoe different databases report and present their data. These limitations inhibit the creation of a reliable prediction model of mortality.
Table of Contents
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..1
Methods……………………………………………….…………………………………...8
Results……………………………………………………………………………………12
Discussion………………………………………………………………………………...15
References………………………………………………………………………………...22
Tables……………………………………………………………………………………..26
Table 1……………………………………………………………………………26
Table 2……………………………………………………………………………27
Table 3……………………………………………………………………………28
Figures…………………………………………………………………………………….29
Figure 1………………………………………………………………………........29
Figure 2………………………………………………………………………........30
Appendix 1………………………………………………………………………………..31
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