Using Serology and GIS to Assess Risk Factors for Trachoma in Central Tanzania, A Novel Analysis Público

Brooks, Alison Jamila (2014)

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Using Serology and GIS to Assess Risk Factors for Trachoma in Central Tanzania, A Novel Analysis

By Alison Brooks


Background: Trachoma is the world's leading cause of preventable blindness affecting over 20 million people and costing over $5.3 billion USD in productivity loss. Efforts to eliminate this disease from its 57 endemic countries use the SAFE strategy to address the disease at its multiple stages.

Introduction: Efforts to eliminate trachoma have made great strides technologically and logistically. However, present sampling and clinical assessment tools lack the specificity and sensitivity necessary address areas winding down MDA and those with TF prevalence of below 9%.

Methods: Pre-MDA serological data in combination with GIS extracted data was used to build a logistical explanatory model for trachoma.

Results: The significant indicators in the model were age, village, entamoebiasis, and distance to water. Three models were built and validated; predicting 66.7% of trachoma cases in a validation set of 30 randomly selected observations.

Conclusions: Serological and GIS extracted variables were significant in the models. The successful combination of these technologies provides a frame work for other areas to follow.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Background: 1

Introduction: 8

Methods: 10

Results:. 16

Discussion: 21

Tables and Figures: 28

References: 42

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