Beyond Ethnic Mobilization: Group Characteristics and Conflict Intensification Pubblico
Rubin, Michael Arthur (2010)
Abstract
Abstract
Beyond Ethnic Mobilization: Group Characteristics and Conflict
Intensification
By Michael Rubin
This study aims to build on the research linking ethnicity to armed
conflict behavior and
outcomes within the relatively new area of inquiry examining the
relationship between
ethnic identity and conflict intensification. It seeks to answer
the question: What
characteristics of groups in conflict increase the likelihood of
escalation to war? The
author argues that there are factors associated with ethnic
politics beyond ethnic
mobilization of rebel groups that raise the risk for war. Namely,
group size and exclusion
from political power together create conditions that encourage
intensification of conflict.
In addition, the presence of ethnic kindred across international
boundaries bordering the
group's regional base will increase the likelihood of conflict
escalation in large groups.
These propositions are tested by adapting Eck's (2009) strategy,
using a Cox model on all
intrastate armed conflicts from 1946-2004; ethnic conflicts are
divided according to the
groups participating in conflict so as to insert group
characteristics into the analysis.
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Beyond Ethnic Mobilization: Group Characteristics and
Conflict Intensification…..1
Figure 1: Trends By Armed Conflict Type,
1946-2007…………………….……...3
Figure 2: Global Trends in Armed Conflict Onsets,
1946-2009……….…….…3
Previous
Research……………………………………………………........................…………………....5
Hypotheses…………………………………………………………………………...........................….….14
Research Design and
Data……………………………………………………………….......................19
The Dependent Variable: Conflict
Intensification………………………...……….22
Hypotheses 1-3: Group Size and Access to
Power………………..……..………23
Hypothesis 4: The Ethnic
Kin-Effect…………………………........………………….24
Control
Variables………………………………………………………................………...25
Empirical
Analysis………………………………..........................……………………………………….26
Table
1…………………………………………………………………....................………...28
Table
2…………………………………………....................………………………………...30
Table
3………………………………………....................…………………………………...32
Conclusion………………………………………………............................……………………………….35
References………………………………………………………………..........................………………..41
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