Beyond Ethnic Mobilization: Group Characteristics and Conflict Intensification Open Access

Rubin, Michael Arthur (2010)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/qz20st101?locale=en
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Abstract

Abstract
Beyond Ethnic Mobilization: Group Characteristics and Conflict Intensification
By Michael Rubin
This study aims to build on the research linking ethnicity to armed conflict behavior and
outcomes within the relatively new area of inquiry examining the relationship between
ethnic identity and conflict intensification. It seeks to answer the question: What
characteristics of groups in conflict increase the likelihood of escalation to war? The
author argues that there are factors associated with ethnic politics beyond ethnic
mobilization of rebel groups that raise the risk for war. Namely, group size and exclusion
from political power together create conditions that encourage intensification of conflict.
In addition, the presence of ethnic kindred across international boundaries bordering the
group's regional base will increase the likelihood of conflict escalation in large groups.
These propositions are tested by adapting Eck's (2009) strategy, using a Cox model on all
intrastate armed conflicts from 1946-2004; ethnic conflicts are divided according to the
groups participating in conflict so as to insert group characteristics into the analysis.

Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Beyond Ethnic Mobilization: Group Characteristics and Conflict Intensification…..1
Figure 1: Trends By Armed Conflict Type, 1946-2007…………………….……...3
Figure 2: Global Trends in Armed Conflict Onsets, 1946-2009……….…….…3

Previous Research……………………………………………………........................…………………....5

Hypotheses…………………………………………………………………………...........................….….14

Research Design and Data……………………………………………………………….......................19
The Dependent Variable: Conflict Intensification………………………...……….22
Hypotheses 1-3: Group Size and Access to Power………………..……..………23
Hypothesis 4: The Ethnic Kin-Effect…………………………........………………….24
Control Variables………………………………………………………................………...25

Empirical Analysis………………………………..........................……………………………………….26
Table 1…………………………………………………………………....................………...28
Table 2…………………………………………....................………………………………...30
Table 3………………………………………....................…………………………………...32


Conclusion
………………………………………………............................……………………………….35


References………………………………………………………………..........................………………..41

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