The Effects of Targeted Foreign Aid on Clientelism: The Case of the European Recovery Program in Italy Public
Nordquist, Sienna (Spring 2020)
Published
Abstract
This study evaluates the relationship between the targeted disbursement of foreign aid by domestic actors and clientelist outcomes. The theory is moderated by the clientelism and economic influence on the vote literature, which offer insights into how and why voters respond to distributable benefits. Two hypotheses – one focused on fluctuations in electoral outcomes, the other on monitoring mechanisms of clientelist exchanges – are tested in a case study of the Christian Democrats’ disbursement of European Recovery Program (ERP) project funding between the 1948 and 1953 national elections. Sufficient evidence is found to negate both original hypotheses, with the author concluding that the disbursement of ERP funds generated higher expectations amongst voters, which ultimately harmed the Christian Democrats’ subsequent electoral performance in 1953. The study is significant insofar as it tests quantitative hypotheses related to the expansion of clientelist ties, tests specific funding mechanisms on support for a mass political party, and investigates the efficacy of foreign aid in developing clientelist networks.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Introduction 1
Literature Review and Theory 4
The strategic incentives of foreign aid…………………………………………..…4
Clientelism……….…………………………………………………………………...…..6
Economic influence on the vote………………………………………………...….11
Foreign actors and clientelism…………..……………………………..……..……14
Hypotheses 15
Hypothesis 1……………………………...…………………………………………..…15
Hypothesis 2………...……………………………………………………………..……16
Case Study 17
Why a case study?.....................................................................................17
Clientelism in Italy…………………………...…………………………………….....19
The ERP in Postwar Italy……………………….………………………………...…..22
Data and Methodology 25
Dependent variables………………………….………………………………………..25
Independent variable………………….……………………………………………....27
Control variables……………….………………………………………………….…...28
ERP Project Funding at Various Regional and Subsidy Type Levels….…...31
Results and Discussion 33
Testing Hypothesis 1……………………..………………………………….………..33
Map 1………...…………………………………………………………...….............34
Table 1…………………...……………………………………………….......…….…35
Results Based on ERP Project Funding by Region…………….………………..39
Table 2………….…………………………………………………………….......…...41
Table 3……………………………………………….…………………….......……...42
Results Based on ERP Project Funding by Subsidy Type...………………...…43
Table 4…………………………………………….…………………………........…...44
Table 5………………………………………….…………………………........……...45
Explaining the Results from Testing Hypothesis 1…………….…………….…46
Map 2………………………………………………………………………….........….49
Testing Hypothesis 2………………………………….……………………...….…….53
Table 6………………………………….……………………………………........…...54
Conclusion 55
References 58
Appendix A: Data Entry Guidelines – ERP Projects Data 64
Appendix B: Image File Data Entry Guidelines 74
Appendix C: Models including Small Parties’ Control Variable 76
Appendix C Table………………………………………………..……………….….….77
Appendix D: ERP Project Funding Per Capita Models 78
Appendix D Table 1……………………………………..………………………..…….80
Appendix D Table 2…………………………..………………………………………...81
Appendix E: Models including Fixed Effects for the Regions 82
Appendix E Table 1…………………………...………………………………….…….83
Appendix E Table 2……………………………...………………………………….….84
Appendix F: Data Used to Generate Map 2 85
Appendix G: Descriptive Statistics Tables 86
Appendix G Table 1………………………………………...…………..………………86
Appendix G Table 2…………………………………………………………..……..….87
Appendix G Table 3………………………………………………………...……..……88
Appendix G Table 4…………………………………………………………..……..….89
Appendix G Table 5………………………………………………………...……..……90
Appendix G Table 6…………………………………………………………..……..….91
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