Fighting for Peace: Factors Affecting the Durability of Peace after Civil War Termination Public
Czufin, Olivia Catherine (2016)
Abstract
Civil wars continue to be increasingly prevalent in the global environment. In contrast to their inter-state counterparts, civil conflicts are more numerous, brutal, and deadly. Exacerbating these effects is the problem that many civil wars reemerge after termination: the post-war peace does not last. This phenomenon begs the question: what factors promote a durable peace after civil war termination? This study begins to explore that question, looking at various pre, mid, and post-war factors that affect the durability of peace after civil war termination. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, this empirical study found that a country's economy is the most consistent factor that influences the durability of peace. More specifically, a strong economy correlates with a durable peace. This study also found that countries with pre-war political exclusion for populations and conflicts that fade both correlate with a less-durable peace, while conflicts that end in a total victory correlate with a more lasting peace. This research contributes to the vital discussion on how to handle civil war termination, promote peace, and prevent civil wars from reemerging.
Table of Contents
Introduction. 1
The Causes of Civil War. 2
The Causes of Civil War: Ethnicity. 3
The Causes of Civil War: Inequality. 5
Characteristics of Conflict. 6
Characteristics of Settlement. 7
Post-Conflict Conditions.9
Research Design. 13
Analysis Results. 17
Table 1. Pre-War Factors. 19
Table 2.1 Mid-War Factors: Deaths. 20
Table 2.2 Mid-War Factors: Magnitude. 20
Table 3.1 Post-War Termination Factors: Any Peace Agreement. 21
Table 3.2 Post-War Termination Factors: Total Victory. 21
Table 3.3 Post-War Termination Factors: Conflict Fades. 21
Table 4.1 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Any Peacekeeping. 22
Table 4.2 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Humanitarian Peacekeeping. 22
Table 4.3 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Traditional Peacekeeping. 23
Table 4.4 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Number of Peacekeepers. 23
Table 4.5 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Number of Countries Involved in Mission. 23
Introduction: Guatemala. 23
Characteristics of Society: Guatemala. 24
Characteristics of Conflict: Guatemala. 27
Characteristics of Settlement and Post-Conflict Condition: Guatemala. 31
Findings and Results. 34
Guatemala. 34
Quantitative and Qualitative Results. 35
Conclusion. 38
Bibliography. 41
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