Fighting for Peace: Factors Affecting the Durability of Peace after Civil War Termination Open Access

Czufin, Olivia Catherine (2016)

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Civil wars continue to be increasingly prevalent in the global environment. In contrast to their inter-state counterparts, civil conflicts are more numerous, brutal, and deadly. Exacerbating these effects is the problem that many civil wars reemerge after termination: the post-war peace does not last. This phenomenon begs the question: what factors promote a durable peace after civil war termination? This study begins to explore that question, looking at various pre, mid, and post-war factors that affect the durability of peace after civil war termination. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, this empirical study found that a country's economy is the most consistent factor that influences the durability of peace. More specifically, a strong economy correlates with a durable peace. This study also found that countries with pre-war political exclusion for populations and conflicts that fade both correlate with a less-durable peace, while conflicts that end in a total victory correlate with a more lasting peace. This research contributes to the vital discussion on how to handle civil war termination, promote peace, and prevent civil wars from reemerging.

Table of Contents

Introduction. 1

The Causes of Civil War. 2

The Causes of Civil War: Ethnicity. 3

The Causes of Civil War: Inequality. 5

Characteristics of Conflict. 6

Characteristics of Settlement. 7

Post-Conflict Conditions.9

Research Design. 13

Analysis Results. 17

Table 1. Pre-War Factors. 19

Table 2.1 Mid-War Factors: Deaths. 20

Table 2.2 Mid-War Factors: Magnitude. 20

Table 3.1 Post-War Termination Factors: Any Peace Agreement. 21

Table 3.2 Post-War Termination Factors: Total Victory. 21

Table 3.3 Post-War Termination Factors: Conflict Fades. 21

Table 4.1 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Any Peacekeeping. 22

Table 4.2 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Humanitarian Peacekeeping. 22

Table 4.3 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Traditional Peacekeeping. 23

Table 4.4 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Number of Peacekeepers. 23

Table 4.5 Post-War Peacekeeping Factors: Number of Countries Involved in Mission. 23

Introduction: Guatemala. 23

Characteristics of Society: Guatemala. 24

Characteristics of Conflict: Guatemala. 27

Characteristics of Settlement and Post-Conflict Condition: Guatemala. 31

Findings and Results. 34

Guatemala. 34

Quantitative and Qualitative Results. 35

Conclusion. 38

Bibliography. 41

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