Retrospective Voting in the 2012 Election 公开

Silberman, Jonathan Henry (2013)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/kk91fk71j?locale=zh
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Abstract

This paper tests whether the 2012 election followed a traditional retrospective voting model. It starts by outlining an alternative theory, long-term retrospective voting, as an explanation for the 2012 election. Long-term retrospective voting in contrast to traditional retrospective voting holds that economic conditions in 2012 should not be correlated with voter choice because voters were split as to whether to blame the incumbent or predecessor for the failures of the economy. This theory was first tested at the county level by running an OLS regression comparing the changes in Obama's vote share from 2008 to 2012 to the changes in unemployment during his first term in office. The next test was an individual level test using a CNN poll to determine the relationship between subjective views of the economy and voting. Both tests showed that despite unusual conditions, the 2012 election followed a tradition retrospective voting model.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Chapter Page Numbers

Introduction 1-5 Chapter 1 6-16 Chapter 2 17-38 Chapter 3 39-48 Chapter 4 49-52 Works Cited 53-61

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