Understanding the Mechanisms of Diffusion of National Renewable Energy Targets translation missing: es.hyrax.visibility.files_restricted.text

Bergero, Maria Candelaria (Spring 2019)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/k3569557v?locale=es
Published

Abstract

This thesis aims to better understand the mechanisms of diffusion of national renewable energy targets in 187 countries from 1974 until 2017. It does so with a systems framework by invoking the Panarchy adaptive cycle, and by understanding policy as a theory of social change. The research design uses a mixed methods approach, combining an event history analysis (EHA) and a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The outcome of interest is the first national renewable energy target adopted in each country. Targets are adopted through policies, thus this research analyzes four mechanisms of policy diffusion: learning, economic competition, emulation and coercion. Additionally, the control variables of oil price, population size, energy use per capita, and income are taken into account. The results from both the EHA and QCA suggest that countries emulate each other with respect to renewable energy target adoption. Target adoptions appear proportional to oil price and inversely proportional to population size - most countries adopt the policy when oil prices are high and population size is small. However, QCA results also suggest the presence of the other mechanisms of policy diffusion, showing a total of ten combinations of variables that lead to target adoption, therefore contemplating for equifinality and conjunctural causation.

Table of Contents

1. Models of Change in Social-Ecological Systems 2

1.1 What is a System? 2

1.2 Political Systems 2

1.3 Social-Ecological Systems 4

1.4 Simple Models of Change 4

2. The Adaptive Cycle and the Development of a Fossil-Fuel-Based Economy 12

2.1 Navigating the Adaptive Cycle: From r to K Phase 12

2.2 Navigating the Adaptive Cycle: From Late K to 𝝮 Phase 14

2.3 Navigating the Adaptive Cycle: From 𝝮 to 𝝰 to r Phase 18

3. Changes in National Energy Policy 20

3.1 Definitions 20

3.1.1. Policy 20

3.1.2. Renewable Energy 20

3.1.3. Renewable Energy Target 21

3.1.4. Policy Diffusion 21

3.2 The Mechanisms of Policy Diffusion 23

3.2.1 Learning 27

Learning Hypotheses 28

3.2.2 Economic Competition 28

Economic Competition Hypothesis 31

3.2.3 Emulation 32

Emulation Hypothesis 33

3.2.4 Coercion 34

Coercion Hypothesis 35

3.3 The Mechanisms Along the Adaptive Cycle 35

4. Methodology 38

4.1 A Mixed Methods Approach 38

4.2 Event History Analysis 41

4.3 Qualitative Comparative Analysis 42

5. Study Design 46

5.1 Dependent Variable / Outcome: Renewable Energy Targets 48

5.2 Independent Variables / Conditions: Diffusion Mechanisms and Controls 52

5.2.1 Learning - Cumulative Membership to Energy IEA 54

5.2.2 Economic Competition - Energy Profile 55

5.2.3 Emulation - Similarity Index 55

5.2.4 Coercion - ODA 58

5.2.5 Control - Oil Price 59

5.2.6 Control - Population 59

5.2.7 Control - Energy Use per Capita 60

5.2.8 Control - Income Level 60

5.2.9 Control - Year of Adoption 61

5.3 Analysis 61

5.3.1 Event History Analysis 61

5.3.2 Qualitative Comparative Analysis 62

6. Results 64

6.1 Event History Analysis 64

6.1.1 General Results 64

6.1.2 Robustness Analysis 68

Regional Model 69

Income Model 71

Energy Model 74

6.1.3 EHA Conclusions 77

6.2 Qualitative Comparative Analysis 79

6.2.1 General Results 80

6.2.2 QCA Conclusions 89

6.3 Combined Analysis 92

6.3.1 Results Comparison 92

General Results Comparison 92

Regional Results Comparison 94

Income Results Comparison 95

Energy Results Comparison 97

6.3.2 Mixed Methods Conclusions 97

7. Discussion and Policy Implications 101

8. Conclusions 105

9. References 110

10. Appendices 124

Appendix 1: Countries included in the analysis 124

Appendix 2: Steps followed in the construction of similarity index 127

Appendix 3: Quantitative model comparison 128

Appendix 4: QCA calibration rules 130

Appendix 5: Parameters of fit for QCA 133

Appendix 6: Countries included in final QCA model 134

Appendix 7: fsQCA output 137

Figures

Figure 1. A political system 3

Figure 2. The three phases of transformation . 8

Figure 3. The Panarchy adaptive cycle 9

Figure 4. The Panarchy adaptive cycle applied to policy 10

Figure 5. Global primary energy production (1900-2014) 14

Figure 6. Global distribution of renewable energy targets in 2017 49

Figure 7. Global cumulative frequency of adoptions over time 50

Figure 8. Renewable energy target maps 51

Figure 9. Thesis design 53

Figure 10. Odds ratio for adoption VS oil price increase 66

Figure 11. Total policy adoptions per year and oil price 67

Tables

Table 1. Three attributes of social-ecological systems 5

Table 2. Mechanisms of policy diffusion 26

Table 3. Summary statistics for analyzed variables 47

Table 4. EHA general model results 68

Table 5. EHA regional model results  71

Table 6. EHA income model results 74

Table 7. EHA energy model results 76

Table 8. QCA general model results  83

Table 9. Ten paths to renewable energy targets 87

Table 10. Comparison of EHA and QCA general results 93

Table 11. Comparison of EHA and QCA regional results  95

Table 12. Comparison of EHA and QCA income results  96

Table 13. Comparison of EHA and QCA energy results  97

Table 14. Comparison of different regressions 126

Table 15. QCA Calibration Rules 130

Table 16. Parameters of fit for QCA 133

Table 17. QCA truth table and output for test of sufficient conditions 137

Table 18. QCA main model intermediate solution output 138

Table 19. QCA second model intermediate solution output with population 139

About this Master's Thesis

Rights statement
  • Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.
School
Department
Degree
Submission
Language
  • English
Research field
Palabra Clave
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor
Committee Members
Última modificación No preview

Primary PDF

Supplemental Files