Understanding the Mechanisms of Diffusion of National Renewable Energy Targets Restricted; Files Only
Bergero, Maria Candelaria (Spring 2019)
Published
Abstract
This thesis aims to better understand the mechanisms of diffusion of national renewable energy targets in 187 countries from 1974 until 2017. It does so with a systems framework by invoking the Panarchy adaptive cycle, and by understanding policy as a theory of social change. The research design uses a mixed methods approach, combining an event history analysis (EHA) and a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The outcome of interest is the first national renewable energy target adopted in each country. Targets are adopted through policies, thus this research analyzes four mechanisms of policy diffusion: learning, economic competition, emulation and coercion. Additionally, the control variables of oil price, population size, energy use per capita, and income are taken into account. The results from both the EHA and QCA suggest that countries emulate each other with respect to renewable energy target adoption. Target adoptions appear proportional to oil price and inversely proportional to population size - most countries adopt the policy when oil prices are high and population size is small. However, QCA results also suggest the presence of the other mechanisms of policy diffusion, showing a total of ten combinations of variables that lead to target adoption, therefore contemplating for equifinality and conjunctural causation.
Table of Contents
1. Models of Change in Social-Ecological Systems 2
1.1 What is a System? 2
1.2 Political Systems 2
1.3 Social-Ecological Systems 4
1.4 Simple Models of Change 4
2. The Adaptive Cycle and the Development of a Fossil-Fuel-Based Economy 12
2.1 Navigating the Adaptive Cycle: From r to K Phase 12
2.2 Navigating the Adaptive Cycle: From Late K to 𝝮 Phase 14
2.3 Navigating the Adaptive Cycle: From 𝝮 to 𝝰 to r Phase 18
3. Changes in National Energy Policy 20
3.1 Definitions 20
3.1.1. Policy 20
3.1.2. Renewable Energy 20
3.1.3. Renewable Energy Target 21
3.1.4. Policy Diffusion 21
3.2 The Mechanisms of Policy Diffusion 23
3.2.1 Learning 27
Learning Hypotheses 28
3.2.2 Economic Competition 28
Economic Competition Hypothesis 31
3.2.3 Emulation 32
Emulation Hypothesis 33
3.2.4 Coercion 34
Coercion Hypothesis 35
3.3 The Mechanisms Along the Adaptive Cycle 35
4. Methodology 38
4.1 A Mixed Methods Approach 38
4.2 Event History Analysis 41
4.3 Qualitative Comparative Analysis 42
5. Study Design 46
5.1 Dependent Variable / Outcome: Renewable Energy Targets 48
5.2 Independent Variables / Conditions: Diffusion Mechanisms and Controls 52
5.2.1 Learning - Cumulative Membership to Energy IEA 54
5.2.2 Economic Competition - Energy Profile 55
5.2.3 Emulation - Similarity Index 55
5.2.4 Coercion - ODA 58
5.2.5 Control - Oil Price 59
5.2.6 Control - Population 59
5.2.7 Control - Energy Use per Capita 60
5.2.8 Control - Income Level 60
5.2.9 Control - Year of Adoption 61
5.3 Analysis 61
5.3.1 Event History Analysis 61
5.3.2 Qualitative Comparative Analysis 62
6. Results 64
6.1 Event History Analysis 64
6.1.1 General Results 64
6.1.2 Robustness Analysis 68
Regional Model 69
Income Model 71
Energy Model 74
6.1.3 EHA Conclusions 77
6.2 Qualitative Comparative Analysis 79
6.2.1 General Results 80
6.2.2 QCA Conclusions 89
6.3 Combined Analysis 92
6.3.1 Results Comparison 92
General Results Comparison 92
Regional Results Comparison 94
Income Results Comparison 95
Energy Results Comparison 97
6.3.2 Mixed Methods Conclusions 97
7. Discussion and Policy Implications 101
8. Conclusions 105
9. References 110
10. Appendices 124
Appendix 1: Countries included in the analysis 124
Appendix 2: Steps followed in the construction of similarity index 127
Appendix 3: Quantitative model comparison 128
Appendix 4: QCA calibration rules 130
Appendix 5: Parameters of fit for QCA 133
Appendix 6: Countries included in final QCA model 134
Appendix 7: fsQCA output 137
Figures
Figure 1. A political system 3
Figure 2. The three phases of transformation . 8
Figure 3. The Panarchy adaptive cycle 9
Figure 4. The Panarchy adaptive cycle applied to policy 10
Figure 5. Global primary energy production (1900-2014) 14
Figure 6. Global distribution of renewable energy targets in 2017 49
Figure 7. Global cumulative frequency of adoptions over time 50
Figure 8. Renewable energy target maps 51
Figure 9. Thesis design 53
Figure 10. Odds ratio for adoption VS oil price increase 66
Figure 11. Total policy adoptions per year and oil price 67
Tables
Table 1. Three attributes of social-ecological systems 5
Table 2. Mechanisms of policy diffusion 26
Table 3. Summary statistics for analyzed variables 47
Table 4. EHA general model results 68
Table 5. EHA regional model results 71
Table 6. EHA income model results 74
Table 7. EHA energy model results 76
Table 8. QCA general model results 83
Table 9. Ten paths to renewable energy targets 87
Table 10. Comparison of EHA and QCA general results 93
Table 11. Comparison of EHA and QCA regional results 95
Table 12. Comparison of EHA and QCA income results 96
Table 13. Comparison of EHA and QCA energy results 97
Table 14. Comparison of different regressions 126
Table 15. QCA Calibration Rules 130
Table 16. Parameters of fit for QCA 133
Table 17. QCA truth table and output for test of sufficient conditions 137
Table 18. QCA main model intermediate solution output 138
Table 19. QCA second model intermediate solution output with population 139
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