The Numbers behind Peacekeeping Missions: Sustaining Peace After Civil Conflicts Pubblico

Abstract

This article examines how the robustness of peacekeeping operations and third parties influence post-war peace. Previous studies have found that peacekeeping decreases the chances of war re-occurring, but it is still unclear as to what "mission qualities" yield successful peacekeeping missions and facilitate peace. In this study, I hypothesize that: (1) more peacekeepers to civilians and conflict area decrease the chance of war re-occurring and (2) peacekeeping mandates with humanitarian purposes and more international non-governmental organizations per capita increase the length of postwar peace. Using survival analysis, I quantitatively analyze the aftermath of fifty-three civil conflicts. The results of my study indicate that a higher ratio of peacekeepers to civilians, more international non-governmental organizations per capita, and humanitarian purposes decrease the chance of war re-emerging.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1

Literature Review............................................................................................................................ 2

How Civil Wars End: Nature of Conflicts and Pre-Negotiation Theories.................................. 2

How Civil Wars End: Post-Negotiation Theories ....................................................................... 4

Theories about Peacekeeping Operations ................................................................................... 6

Hypotheses ...................................................................................................................................... 9

Results ........................................................................................................................................... 18

Table 1 Cox Proportional Hazards Model of Civil War Settlement Stability, 1945-2016 ....... 18

Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 19

Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 21

References ..................................................................................................................................... 23

APPENDIX A: Case List .............................................................................................................. 26

APPENDIX B: Data Documentation ............................................................................................ 29

APPENDIX C: GDP Per Capita Data Substitutions ..................................................................... 31

APPENDIX D: INGO Data Substitutions .................................................................................... 32

APPENDIX E: Conflict Radius Data Substitutions...................................................................... 33

APPENDIX F: Life Expectancy Substitutions ............................................................................. 34

APPENDIX G: South Sudan Calculations ................................................................................... 35

APPENDIX H: Stata Codes .......................................................................................................... 36

APPENDIX I: Data correlation check .......................................................................................... 39

APPENDIX J: Replication of Mattes and Savun Model with Additional Cases ......................... 40

APPENDIX K: Park's Variables with Coefficients...................................................................... 41

APPENDIX L: Park's Variables with Hazard Rates .................................................................... 42

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General
Parola chiave	Conflict Resolution Civil Wars Peacekeeping
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Davis III, David, Emory University
Committee Members	Kugle, Scott A, Emory University Jung, Danielle F, Emory University

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