The Numbers behind Peacekeeping Missions: Sustaining Peace After Civil Conflicts Open Access

Abstract

This article examines how the robustness of peacekeeping operations and third parties influence post-war peace. Previous studies have found that peacekeeping decreases the chances of war re-occurring, but it is still unclear as to what "mission qualities" yield successful peacekeeping missions and facilitate peace. In this study, I hypothesize that: (1) more peacekeepers to civilians and conflict area decrease the chance of war re-occurring and (2) peacekeeping mandates with humanitarian purposes and more international non-governmental organizations per capita increase the length of postwar peace. Using survival analysis, I quantitatively analyze the aftermath of fifty-three civil conflicts. The results of my study indicate that a higher ratio of peacekeepers to civilians, more international non-governmental organizations per capita, and humanitarian purposes decrease the chance of war re-emerging.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1

Literature Review............................................................................................................................ 2

How Civil Wars End: Nature of Conflicts and Pre-Negotiation Theories.................................. 2

How Civil Wars End: Post-Negotiation Theories ....................................................................... 4

Theories about Peacekeeping Operations ................................................................................... 6

Hypotheses ...................................................................................................................................... 9

Results ........................................................................................................................................... 18

Table 1 Cox Proportional Hazards Model of Civil War Settlement Stability, 1945-2016 ....... 18

Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 19

Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 21

References ..................................................................................................................................... 23

APPENDIX A: Case List .............................................................................................................. 26

APPENDIX B: Data Documentation ............................................................................................ 29

APPENDIX C: GDP Per Capita Data Substitutions ..................................................................... 31

APPENDIX D: INGO Data Substitutions .................................................................................... 32

APPENDIX E: Conflict Radius Data Substitutions...................................................................... 33

APPENDIX F: Life Expectancy Substitutions ............................................................................. 34

APPENDIX G: South Sudan Calculations ................................................................................... 35

APPENDIX H: Stata Codes .......................................................................................................... 36

APPENDIX I: Data correlation check .......................................................................................... 39

APPENDIX J: Replication of Mattes and Savun Model with Additional Cases ......................... 40

APPENDIX K: Park's Variables with Coefficients...................................................................... 41

APPENDIX L: Park's Variables with Hazard Rates .................................................................... 42

About this Honors Thesis

Rights statement

• Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.

School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General
Keyword	Conflict Resolution Civil Wars Peacekeeping
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Davis III, David, Emory University
Committee Members	Kugle, Scott A, Emory University Jung, Danielle F, Emory University

Last modified

Primary PDF

Thumbnail	Title	Date Uploaded	Actions
	The Numbers behind Peacekeeping Missions: Sustaining Peace After Civil Conflicts ()	2018-08-28 15:40:56 -0400	Press to Select an action Download

Supplemental Files

Thumbnail	Title	Date Uploaded	Actions