Voting in New Democracies: the Case of Egypt's First Post-Mubarak Elections Open Access

Noar, Ariane M. (2013)

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This thesis attempts to discern why Egyptians voted the way they did in both rounds of Egypt's first free and fair presidential elections in 2012. More specifically, this thesis compared governorate level electoral results to governorate level socio-demographic data in order to distinguish which factors were most influential on voters' choices. Through this examination, I hope to contribute to the larger literature on voting in new democracies by demonstrating what models of voter behavior and influences were most salient in Egypt's case. The first part of this study focuses on the first round of the elections and how voters chose between the many candidates with different platforms. The second part turns to the runoffs and studies how those voters whose first choice was no longer in the running decided between Morsi and Shafiq. The findings in the first round indicate that the significant urban/rural divide in Egypt both because of the large disparities it causes in lifestyles but also because it allowed for organizational mobilization to be effective in rural areas which contain a majority of voters. In the second round, this thesis finds that voters would support whichever candidate had the most similar platform to their first choice candidate, particularly in regards to religion in politics and support for the revolution. Ultimately, this thesis provides further support for the sociological model of voter behavior in new democracies but emphasizes that rather than being the singular mechanism behind voter choice, sociological factors served as a facilitator for organizational effects.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Literature Review 2

Presentation of Hypotheses 12

Research Design 19

Background 22

Part I- First Round of the Presidential Elections 27

Part II- Second Round of the Presidential Elections 57

Conclusions 73

Bibliography 80

Table 1.1 38

Table 1.2 39

Table 1.3 45

Table 1.4 45

Table 1.5 47

Table 2.1 62

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