Trajectories of Economic Development, Land Cover Change, and Ecosystem Services in Latin America (1992–2022) Restricted; Files Only

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, Latin America has experienced the highest rate of deforestation on Earth, primarily driven by the expansion of agriculture. The conversion of land for agriculture has economic benefits but causes the loss of ecosystem services. As awareness of ecosystem services has grown, many Latin American countries have enacted policies designed to protect ecosystems and the benefits they provide. A key question is whether policies have been effective at halting the loss of forests and ecosystem services. 

Previous studies show that trends of deforestation tend to follow an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship. The EKC predicts that as income increases, countries tend to see accelerating deforestation until they reach a turning point, after which forest cover increases with further income. I investigate whether policies have allowed countries to improve upon the baseline EKC trajectory. I track land cover change from 1992-2022 using annual maps developed by the European Space Agency and apply InVEST® ecosystem service models to estimate changes in carbon storage and nitrogen export caused by land cover change. 

To estimate the EKC, I use two-way fixed effects regressions to predict forest cover, carbon storage, and nitrogen export as a function of national characteristics. To identify the impact of policies, I compare observed values of forest, carbon, and nitrogen to fitted values predicted by the EKC regressions. I identify three instances where the divergence of observed and predicted trends coincides with the enactment of major environmental policies. These are the 1996 establishment of a payments for ecosystem services program in Costa Rica, the 2004 implementation of anti-deforestation policy in Brazil, and the 2008 adoption of constitutional rights of nature in Ecuador. The results suggest that policies that internalize the value of nature can meaningfully accelerate EKC turning points for forest, carbon, and nitrogen. 

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 1

2. Background 9

3. Methods 18

3.1 Study Area 18

3.2 Data Sources 19

3.2.1 Land Cover 19

3.2.2 Protected Areas 20

3.2.3 Population Density 22

3.2.4 Beef Production 22

3.2.5 Cereal Yield 22

3.2.6 GDP per Capita 22

3.3 Carbon Model 22

3.3.1 Land Cover Inputs 23

3.3.2 Carbon Pools 24

3.3.3 Assumptions and Simplifications 24

3.3.4 Outputs and Interpretation 25

3.4 Nutrient Delivery Ratio Model 25

3.4.1 Nitrogen Loads 26

3.4.2 Nutrient Export 27

3.4.3 HydroSHEDS Data 28

3.4.4 Execution and Error Correction 29

3.4.5 Sensitivity and Uncertainty 30

3.4.6 Outputs and Interpretation 30

4. Results 33

4.1 Land Cover Change 33

4.2 Ecosystem Service Outcomes 36

4.3 EKC Analysis 38

5. Discussion 45

References 51

Appendix A. Biophysical Tables 64

Appendix B. NDR Error Correction 71

Appendix C. Fitted Values Plots 72

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Environmental Studies
Degree	B.S.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Environmental Sciences Economics, Environmental
Palavra-chave	Environmental Kuznets Curve Nitrogen Export Deforestation Ecosystem Services Land Cover Change Policy Carbon Storage
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Eric Lonsdorf, Emory University
Committee Members	Michael Page, Emory University Lance Gunderson, Emory University

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