An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of International Trade on Terrorism Pubblico

Abstract

This paper uses a fixed effect negative binomial model to examine the impact of international trade on terrorism and finds that total trade is negatively related to all types of terrorism, which are measured as the number of terrorist events. This paper compares the impact of trade on domestic and transitional terrorism and concludes that trade has a greater impact on domestic terrorism than transitional terrorism; however, total trade is connected to both forms of terrorism. This paper further investigates the impact of various exports and concludes that not all types of trade are negatively related to terrorism. This paper also studied the lagged effect of trade and finds that trade does have a lag effect on terrorism, which is positive but changes over time. Finally, this paper investigates a number of social and political controls and finds evidence to support that the level of democracy and natural resource dependency potentially interacts with trade's impact on terrorism.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ...................................................................................... 1

2. Theory ............................................................................................ 4

   1. Measures of Terrorism ..................................................................... 4

   2. Types of Exports ............................................................................ 5

   3. Economic and Political Systems .......................................................... 6

      1. Democracy ......................................................................... 6

      2. Economic Opportunity ............................................................ 7

      3. Education ............................................................................ 8

      4. Natural Resource Dependency ................................................... 9

   4. Impact of Trade and Exports Over Time ............................................... 9

3. Data & Methods ................................................................................. 10

   1. Dependent Variable: Terrorism ......................................................... 10

   2. Independent Variable: International Trade ............................................ 14

   3. Control Variables .............................................................................. 15

   4. Primary Interest Variables ................................................................ 16

   5. Empirical Model ............................................................................... 17

4. Results ................................................................................................ 17

   1. Baseline Results ................................................................................ 18

   2. Types of Exports ............................................................................. 21

   3. Various Political and Economic Systems ............................................. 24

      1. Democracy ............................................................................ 24

      2. Economic Opportunity .......................................................... 24

      3. Education ......................................................................... 25

      4. Natural Resources Dependency.... ............................................ 26

   4. Changes in Exports Overtime .......................................................... 26

5. Conclusion ..................................................................................... 27

6. Appendix ............................................................................................ 29

7. References .......................................................................................... 38

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Economics
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Economics, General
Parola chiave	Trade Terrorism
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Allison, Blake A, Emory University
Committee Members	Reinhardt, Eric, Emory University Liu, Ruixuan , Emory University

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