Top of the Ticket to the Bottom of the Ballot: Non-Judicial Campaign Impacts on State Supreme Court Elections 公开

Abstract

In recent years, the judiciary’s role in deciding salient political issues is increasingly evident. As high-profile court cases decide controversial issues such as reproductive rights, election disputes, LGBTQ rights, and gun laws, the electorate’s stake in judicial elections increases. While many judges are elected, most of these races are low information, where voters do not know much about the candidates on the ballot. Additionally, judicial elections are often uncontested, and incumbents experience significant advantages. Previous studies have demonstrated that one way that voters make decisions on judicial elections is through other elections on the same ballot. In particular, campaigns disseminate their message through social media, television advertisements, and debates. This study aims to examine what the role of top of ticket campaign activities plays in down-ballot elections. By analyzing the language used in gubernatorial and senatorial debates, this study seeks to determine whether the salience of judiciary-related issues impact competition in State Supreme Court elections on the same ballot. This research will highlight how rhetoric used by campaigns may have a broader impact on elections.

Table of Contents

Introduction                                                                                                                           1

Literature Review                                                                                                                  3

           Judicially Salient Issues                                                                                              3

Party Affiliation                                                                                                          4

Spillover Ads Effect                                                                                                    5

Gubernatorial and Senatorial Debates                                                                      6

Incumbents and Challengers                                                                                     9

Hypotheses                                                                                                                            10

Data                                                                                                                                       11

           Table 1: Variable Descriptions for Debates                                                                   11

Figure 1: Mentions of LGBTQ and Gun Issues in Gov and Sen Debates over Years           12

           Figure 2: Mentions of Gun Issues by Dem. cand. in Gov and Sen Debates over Years      13

           Figure 3: Mentions of Gun Issues by Rep. cand. in Gov and Sen Debates over Years       13

           Figure 4: Mentions of LGBTQ Issues by Dem. cand. in Gov and Sen Debates over Years  14

           Figure 5: Mentions of LGBTQ Issues by Rep. cand. in Gov and Sen Debates over years    15

           Table 2: Variable Descriptions for State Supreme Court Elections                                  16

Results                                                                                                                                   17

Table 3 : OLS Regression Results for LGBTQ and Gun mentions and Dem. and Rep.

Challenger Vote Share                                                                                                 17       

Figure 6: Republican Gun Mentions and Challenger Vote Share                                     18

           Figure 7: Republican LGBTQ Mentions and Challenger Vote Share                                 18

           Figure 8: Democratic Gun Mentions and Challenger Vote Share                                    18

           Figure 9: Democratic LGBTQ Mentions and Challenger Vote Share                                19

           Table 4: OLS Regression Results for Dem. LGBTQ Mentions and Rep. Gun

Mentions on Dem. and Rep. Vote Shares in Partisan State Supreme Court Elections        20

           Figure 10: Effect of Republican gun mentions on Republican Vote Share                       20

           Figure 11: Effect of Democratic LGBTQ mentions on Democratic Vote Share                  21

           Table 5: OLS regression results for LGBTQ and Gun mentions on all

Challenger Vote Share                                                                                                  22

Discussion                                                                                                                              23

Conclusion                                                                                                                             26

Works Cited                                                                                                                           28

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Political Science
Degree	B.A.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General
关键词	State Supreme Court Political Debates judicial elections
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Matthew Baker, Emory University
Committee Members	Zachary Peskowitz, Emory University Alexander Bolton, Emory University

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