Determinants of Marta Ridership: How Gas Prices, Income, and Race Affect Public Transit Use in Atlanta Pubblico

Abstract

As global warming and economic recession become increasingly eminent problems in contemporary society, policymakers have begun to look towards alternative forms of transportation as a means of creating jobs for American workers and reducing the United States' impact on the environment. During the 1970s, many economists studied the costs and benefits of public transit; however, until recently, literature on the subject has been much less robust. This paper contributes to the fields of applied microeconomics and urban transportation studies by containing a three-part analysis on the impact of fuel prices on ridership of Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA) bus and rail systems. Using time series and fixed effects regressions, this study finds that rising fuel costs lead to increased ridership on public transportation in the short term. It also shows with maps created using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) programs that demographic factors, such as race and income, play significant roles in determining public transit usage in Atlanta.

Table of Contents

I. Introduction 1

II. Literature Review 9

III. Data Description 15

IV. Analysis 22

V. Conclusion 36

VI. References 40

VII. Appendices 43

List of Tables:

1. Summary Statistics for Daily Data from July 2006-December 2008 45

2. Summary of Dependent, Independent Variables by City over Five-year Period 50

3. OLS Regressions of Gas Prices (Log (gas prices)) on Total Entries (Log (total entries)) 55

4. Regression of Gas Prices, Month Dummies on Total Number of Entries by Day of the Week 56

5. Regression of Gas Prices, Day Dummies on Total Number of Entries by Month 57

6. Regression of Precipitation, Temperature on Total Entries into MARTA Stations 58

7. OLS Regressions Showing Effects of Gas Prices, Unemployment Rates, Income, Population, and Year Dummies on Unlinked Trips 60

List of Figures:

1. Bus Ridership Trends in Atlanta, 1972-2007 43

2. Rail Ridership Trends in Atlanta, 1979-2007 43

3. Fraction of Bus Ridership/Total Ridership, 1972-2007 44

4a. Average Gas Prices in Atlanta, 1972-2007 45

4b. Real Gas Prices in Atlanta, 1972-2007 45

5. Trend of Total Station Entries, July 2006- December 2008 46

6. Average Total Entries Depending on Day of Week 46

7. Average Total Entries by Month of Year 47

8. Average Daily Gas Prices in Atlanta, July 2006-December 2008 48

9. Trend of Average Unlinked Trips across All Transit Networks from 2001-2006 48

10. Average Unlinked Trips by Transit Network from 2001-2006 49

11. Average Gas Prices across All Cities, 2001-2006 52

12. Map of MARTA's Bus and Rail Networks 53 13. MARTA Rail Map 54

14. Ridership and Median Household Income in Atlanta 61

15. Ridership Patterns of African American Population in South Atlanta 62

About this Honors Thesis

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• Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.

School	Emory College
Department	Economics
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Economics, General Transportation Urban and Regional Planning
Parola chiave	transportation marta fare bus transit income weather rail atlanta gas prices race
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Francis, Andrew, Emory University
Committee Members	Rich, Michael, Emory University Pesavento, Elena, Emory University

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