Propaganda as Provocation: How Autocrats Use Political Rhetoric to Impede Democratic Uprisings Restricted; Files Only
Yeung, Eddy S. F. (Spring 2025)
Abstract
In contemporary autocracies where democratic uprisings have gained momentum, a special form of propaganda exists: political messages that blatantly taunt or mock the opposition. Instead of diverting citizens' attention away from opposition voices, such propaganda directs its rhetoric and public attention toward the opposition and the ongoing movement. What is the political logic behind it?
My dissertation offers a provocative explanation: such propaganda aims to enrage, disgust, and therefore radicalize the opposition. By radicalizing protesters in social movements, the autocrat can discredit regime opponents and dissuade the rest of the public from joining forces with the opposition. Thus, provocative propaganda can help delegitimize the opposition and dissipate the momentum of democratic uprisings, benefiting authoritarian survival.
I examine my theory in Hong Kong, where the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (Anti-ELAB) movement is one of the largest democratic uprisings in recent history and where the opposition—despite the presence of robust civil society—radicalized in the shadow of provocative propaganda. First, I conduct content analysis to illustrate the existence and strategic timing of provocative propaganda. Then, I use an experiment to demonstrate the radicalizing effects of provocative propaganda, bolstering the microfoundations of my theory. Next, I use original survey evidence to demonstrate the downstream political consequences of radicalization, showing its delegitimizing impact on the movement and legitimizing effects on government repression. After providing microlevel evidence consistent with the observable implications of my theory, I triangulate primary and secondary sources to qualitatively trace the opposition's responses to provocation and radicalization during the Anti-ELAB movement. Lastly, I provide a comparative case study of the political communication strategies in other autocracies amid recent democratic uprisings to shed additional light on the generalizability of my theory.
By offering and testing an original theory of how autocrats use political rhetoric to impede democratic uprisings, my dissertation brings new theoretical insights into the comparative study of propaganda and elucidates the strategic logic of provocation in politics.
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The Puzzle
1.1.1 Existing explanations: persuasion and signaling
1.1.2 My argument in brief
1.2 Key Concepts: Propaganda, Radicalization, and Provocation
1.2.1 Defining propaganda
1.2.2 Radicalization: what it means and why it matters
1.2.3 Provocation as a political strategy
1.3 Outline of the Theory
1.3.1 Summary of the argument
1.3.2 Scope conditions
1.4 The Case: Hong Kong's Democratic Uprising in 2019–20
1.5 Contributions to the Literature
1.6 Plan of the Dissertation
2. A THEORY OF PROVOCATIVE PROPAGANDA
2.1 Propaganda as Provocation
2.1.1 Provocative propaganda versus other general forms of propaganda
2.1.2 Provocative propaganda enrages, disgusts, and radicalizes the opposition
2.1.3 Radicalism reduces public support and hampers collective action
2.2 Additional Explanations of Provocative Propaganda
2.2.1 Rallying logic
2.2.2 Intimidation logic
2.3 Observable Implications
2.4 Conclusion
3. PROVOCATIVE PROPAGANDA AMID THE ANTI-ELAB MOVEMENT
3.1 Media Environment during the Anti-ELAB Movement
3.2 Data and Method
3.3 Validation
3.4 Strategic Timing of Provocative Propaganda
3.5 How Persuasive Propaganda Worked in Tandem with Provocation
3.6 Conclusion
4. IMPACTS OF PROVOCATIVE PROPAGANDA ON HONG KONG CITIZENS
4.1 Experimental Design
4.1.1 Procedure
4.1.2 Measurement
4.1.3 Survey flow
4.1.4 Ethics and other considerations
4.1.5 Estimation strategy
4.2 Experimental Results
4.2.1 Provocative effects of provocative propaganda
4.2.2 Limited rallying and intimidation effects
4.2.3 No perceptions of intent to provoke
4.2.4 Caveats
4.3 Conclusion
5. IMPACTS OF RADICALIZATION ON PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE UPRISING
5.1 Qualitative Evidence from Online Discourse
5.2 Quantitative Evidence from an Original Survey
5.2.1 Research design
5.2.2 Results
5.3 Conclusion
6. OPPOSITION STRATEGIES IN THE SHADOW OF PROVOCATION
6.1 Countermessaging and Counterregime Strategies
6.1.1 Lennon Walls
6.1.2 Disrupting propaganda outlets
6.1.3 Doxxing
6.2 Paucity and Failure of Deradicalization Efforts
6.2.1 Alienation of sporadic deradicalization attempts
6.2.2 Putting the difficulty of deradicalization in context
6.3 Conclusion
7. POLITICAL COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES IN DEMOCRATIC UPRISINGS BEYOND HONG KONG
7.1 Belarus: The 2020–21 Belarusian Uprising
7.2 Egypt: The 2011 Egyptian Revolution
7.3 Tunisia: The 2010–11 Jasmine Revolution
7.4 China: The 2011 Chinese Jasmine Revolution
7.5 Russia: The 2011–12 Snow Revolution
7.6 Conclusion
8. PROPAGANDA AND PROVOCATION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE
8.1 Implications for Autocracies
8.2 Implications for Democracies
8.3 Toward a Better Understanding of Strategic Provocation in Politics
About this Dissertation
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