Voting Decisions in the U.S. House of Representatives: The Caseof Health Care Reform Pubblico

Abstract

Health care reform has proven to be a controversial topic in America for the better part of the last century. This study seeks to understand how members of the U.S. House of Representatives make voting decisions when faced with a vote on health care reform legislation by examining: (1) constituency, (2) party leadership, (3) lobby/interest groups, and (4) legislator's personal policy preferences. The study builds on the work done by John Kingdon on legislators' decision making processes, and proposes that constituency and party leadership's preferences will have the greatest influence on a member's voting decision on health care reform. This study answers this question with a mixed method approach composed of logistic regression analysis and in-person interviewing of Representatives and their staff. The findings of the study support the hypothesis that constituency preference has the greatest influence on a member's voting decision, though the influence of party leadership on a member's vote is found to be questionable and in need of further research. While also requiring further research, members' personal preferences were found to be very important to members interviewed in making their voting decisions. Surprisingly, interest groups were found not to have a significant impact on members' voting decisions; instead their influence was found to occur earlier in the legislative process, during the legislation drafting process. This study suggests that in order to attain successful passage of high-salience health care reform legislation, large constituency majorities in members' districts provide the clearest signal to members as to how to cast their votes.

Table of Contents

Introduction……...........................................................................1

Literature Review..........................................................................4

Research Design..........................................................................24

Data Discussion.......................................................................... 29

Linear Probability Models: Logistic Regression Analysis.................34

Interviews...................................................................................43

Results and Conclusions...............................................................52

Figures........................................................................................58

Figure 1: Kingdon's Framework for Explaining Voting Decisions......58

Tables.........................................................................................59

1. Summary Statistics...................................................................59

2. HR 3962 with Only Democrats Included.....................................59

3. Stupak Amendment with Only Democrats Included.....................60

4. HR 4872 with Only Democrats Included..................................... 60

5. HR 3962 Only Democrats Included with a Measure of District Competitiveness ...61

6. The Stupak Amendment Only Democrats Included with a Measure of District Competitiveness....62

7. HR 4872 Only Democrats Included with a Measure of District Competitiveness....63

8. Interview Summary Data.........................................................63

Appendix..............................................................................................................................................64

Interview Questions 1: House Member..................................................................................64

Interview Questions 2: Staff of Representatives....................................................................65

Interest Group Coding Methodology....................................................................................66

Works Cited.......................................................................................................................79

Data Sources.....................................................................................................................83

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General Political Science, Public Administration
Parola chiave	HR 4872 Health Care and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010 Affordable Health Care for America Act Decision Making U.S. House of Representatives NOMINATE score HR 3962 The Stupak Amendment Health Care Decision Making Process Health Care Reform 2009 Abortion Funding Amendment John Kingdon
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Strahan, Randall, Emory University
Committee Members	Capra, C Monica, Emory University Reingold, Beth, Emory University

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