Campaign Finance in the Post-Citizens United Era: The Impact of Independent Expenditures on Electoral Outcomes Open Access

Abstract

While numerous studies in the past have examined the link between spending and electoral outcomes, the 2010 landmark Supreme Court decision Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission ushered in a new era of campaign finance in the United States that has not yet been thoroughly examined. This new era is marked by the potential for unlimited, anonymous donations by individuals, unions, and corporations to outside groups that led to dramatic increases in outside spending and independent expenditures. This study sought to determine, analyze, and explain what effect, if any, such increases in outside spending were having on vote share using a variety of methods culminating in several multivariate regression models. Using open-seat House races as the unit of analysis in order to avoid problematic incumbency effects, the results indicated that while authorized campaign spending remained statistically significant, outside spending was not. The results implied that such spending was not only poorly targeted, but also largely ineffective in having any impact on vote share in the 2012 election cycle - the first Presidential election cycle to be affected by the decision.

Table of Contents

I. Introduction.......................................................................................................1

II. A Brief History of Campaign Finance Regulation........................................................3

Timeline of Major Campaign Finance Laws and Cases in the U.S......................................9

III. The Effects of Campaign Spending: Election Outcomes and Public Policy.....................10

IV. Statement of Hypotheses..................................................................................16

V. Data...............................................................................................................18

VI. Analysis..........................................................................................................24

Variables' Summary Statistics...................................................................................24

Relations among the Independent Variables.. ..............................................................25

Initial Bivariate Analysis...........................................................................................29

Hypotheses Testing: Multivariate Analysis...................................................................30

Tests for Robustness..............................................................................................38

VI. Discussion and Conclusion...................................................................................43

VII. References......................................................................................................47

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Political Science
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General
Keyword	FEC electoral outcomes outside spending independent expenditures Citizens United vote disbursements spending campaign finance
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Giles, Micheal W, Emory University
Committee Members	Abramowitz, Alan, Emory University Dowd, Timothy J, Emory University

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