Students Make Changes: How Authoritarian Governments Respond to Student Protesters Public
Kim, Celline (Spring 2023)
Published
Abstract
This thesis aims to answer the question of if student involvement in pro-democracy protests changes the final outcome of the campaign. Using linear regressions, matching, and three case studies, I evaluate the relationship between student involvement and domestic support, international pressure, and defections on success of a protest—as in if a formal democratic government was created as a direct result of the protest campaign. Using Chenoweth and Stephen’s Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes dataset (2022), Dahlum’s Student Protest dataset (2019), and original coding for campaigns in the years 2006-2013, 396 protest campaigns were analyzed to understand the significance student involvement can have on a campaign movement. In addition, case studies of South Korea in the 1980s, Yugoslavia in 1968, and Bahrain in 2011 were used to further understand how each variable can and does interact with each other. Taking into consideration both methods of analysis, it was found that student involvement does have a statistically significant, positive relation with success. In addition, the case studies have revealed that student involvement interacting with domestic support, international pressure, and defections can only increase these odds. These findings support the idea that students who protest nonviolently are significantly more likely to succeed as well as nonviolent protests in general having higher rates of success than violent protests.
Table of Contents
I. Introduction 2
II. Literature Review 4
1. Literature on Authoritarian Regimes 4
2. Literature on Protest Movements 7
3. Student Protest Movements 10
III. Theory 11
1. Organizational Capacity 12
2. Domestic Support 13
3. International pressure 14
4. Defections from the state and security forces 15
IV. Hypotheses 17
V. Research Design 18
1. Rationale for Mixed Methods 18
2. Quantitative Analysis 19
3. Qualitative Analysis 20
4. Measurement and Data 23
Key Concepts and Variables 23
Dataset Construction 24
Limitations 27
VI. Quantitative Analysis 27
1. Descriptive Statistics 28
2. Regressions 28
3. Causal Considerations 40
VII. Case Studies 42
1. The South Korea Case 42
A Brief Historical Context 42
Student Participation 43
Domestic Support 46
International Pressure 49
Defections 51
Analysis 53
Conclusion 55
2. The Yugoslavia Case 55
A Brief Historical Context 56
Student Involvement 57
Domestic Support 59
International Attention 60
Defections 61
Analysis 62
Conclusion 63
3. The Bahrain Case 63
A Brief Historical Context 64
Student Involvement 65
Domestic Support 67
International Pressure 69
Defections 71
Analysis 73
VIII. Empirical Analysis 75
IX. Concluding Remarks 77
X. Works Cited 78
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