Negative Impacts on Gross Domestic Product Caused by Pandemics Open Access
Holsted, Erin (Spring 2021)
Published
Abstract
Over the past few decades, public health measures have fallen short in rapidly protecting human health and preserving economic growth during emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks. Acknowledging that economic impacts of pandemics exist in several forms, we seek to investigate known negative macroeconomic impacts with respect to gross domestic product (GDP) through a systematic review of the literature. We conducted a search in The Essential Reference Tool for Economics Literature (EconLit) database. The search string included search terms in the following areas: disease outbreak, epidemic, pandemic, cost analysis, gross domestic product, in addition to specific outbreaks such as SARS-CoV-2, Ebola, H1N1. We found 39 records eligible for this review and included them for analysis and discussion. Broadly, there were six different disease outbreaks reported: COVID-19 (n=22); HIV/AIDS (n=10); SARS (n=4); Pandemic Influenza (n=2); Mad Cow Disease (n=1); and Foot and Mouth Disease (n=1). The average percent change in GDP during 2020, the height of COVID-19, for all countries measured and reported on in this review was -7.07%. In all other disease outbreaks, GDP was negatively impacted, even in countries where the outbreak was not occurring. Other notable outcomes were sector related impacts, most commonly in agriculture, services, restaurants, tourism. During COVID-19, healthcare spending in the United States decreased, employment rates dropped during COVID-19 and Mad Cow Disease, and household consumption decreased during SARS in China. Lockdowns and closure of nonessential business led to declines in GDP. Although developed countries face greater impact, as evidenced by the data for GDP percent change and human development index values, pandemics may impact low-and-middle-income countries (LMIC) more substantially at an individual level. Large scale policy interventions need to be implemented early and with aggressive spending, since there is evidence to show that a short-term recession will give rise to strong recovery. Collaboration among public health officials, governments, non-governmental organizations, business professionals to invest in public-health systems now is critical to finding the balance between human and economic health during the next health emergency.
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
…………………………………………………………
1
Background and Significance……………………………………………………
1
Statement of the Problem………………………………………………………..
2
Statement of Purpose…………………………………………………………….
2
Research Questions………………………………………………………………
3
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………………….
4
World Health Organization and International Health Regulations……………
4
Gross Domestic Product………………………………………………………….
5
Overview of Past Disease Outbreaks and Pandemics………………………..
5
CHAPTER 3: METHODS………………………………………………………………...
10
Search Strategy……………………………………………………………………
10
Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria………………………………………………….
10
Selection of Studies……………………………………………………………….
11
Data Extraction…………………………………………………………………….
11
Statistical Analysis…………………………………………………………………
11
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS………………………………………………………………….
13
COVID-19…………………………………………………………………………..
18
HIV/AIDS…………………………………………………………………………...
28
SARS………………………………………………………………………………..
31
Modeling Pandemic Influenza…………………………………………………….
31
Other Disease Outbreaks………………………………………………………….
31
Sector Related Impacts…………………………………………………………….
32
COVID-19………………………………………………………………………
32
HIV/AIDS………………………………………………………………………..
33
Foot and Mouth Disease……………………………………………………...
33
Effect of Interventions………………………………………………………………
34
COVID-19………………………………………………………………………
34
Mad Cow Disease……………………………………………………………..
35
Secondary Outcomes………………………………………………………………
35
Employment…………………………………………………………………….
35
Net Import/Export………………………………………………………………
36
Other…………………………………………………………………………….
36
CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION………………………………………………………………
37
Implications for Public Health Strategy………………………………………
38
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………..
40
REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………...
41
APPENDIX A………………………………………………………………………………..
47
About this Master's Thesis
| School | |
|---|---|
| Department | |
| Degree | |
| Submission | |
| Language |
|
| Research Field | |
| Keyword | |
| Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor |
Primary PDF
| Thumbnail | Title | Date Uploaded | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Negative Impacts on Gross Domestic Product Caused by Pandemics () | 2021-04-29 11:50:24 -0400 |
|
Supplemental Files
| Thumbnail | Title | Date Uploaded | Actions |
|---|