A Spatial Analysis of Casualties Sustained During the Chi-Chi Earthquake and its Applicability to Earthquake Casualty Modeling Público

Sullivan, Maura Catherine (2008)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/q811kj827?locale=es
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Abstract

Earthquakes are by nature a spatial phenomenon. Seismic intensity and subsequent damage are directly related to the geographic properties of the affected area. This dissertation analyzes the spatial pattern of fatalities and hospitalized injuries sustained during the 1999 Chi- Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Seismic intensity, geographic properties such as soil type and distance to the epicenter, population density, building collapse, and demographic characteristics will be analyzed with respect to casualties in order to determine the spatial distribution of casualty risk. This research can be used to develop simple casualty models that predict the location of casualties to facilitate prevention of morbidity and mortality post-event and to assist in pre-event mitigation in order to mitigate the casualty risk from future earthquakes.

This dissertation develops earthquake casualty models centered on three different parameters and evaluates the predictive ability of these models. The maximum coseismic slip provides a better framework than either of the two commonly used spatial centering parameters: epicenter and surface rupture. The strengths and weaknesses of the coseismic slip methodology are further evaluated and additional predictive variables are incorporated into the model, including construction class and additional geologic data. This results in the development of construction class specific casualty vulnerability functions. The relationship between specific ground motion parameters and earthquake casualties is quantified and found to be in accordance with what would be expected from structural engineering research. Finally, a method for translating existing curves from past events to future earthquakes is introduced when the vulnerability functions derived from Chi-Chi are used to model a historical event, the 1976 Tangshan earthquake.

Table of Contents

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW 5

2.1 QUANTIFYING EARTHQUAKES 5

2.1.1 Magnitude 5

2.1.2 Intensity 6

2.1.3 Instrumental Intensity 12

2.2 HISTORICAL CONTEXT FOR EARTHQUAKE IMPACTS 15

2.3 DISASTER EPIDEMIOLOGY 17

2.4 EARTHQUAKE EPIDEMIOLOGY 21

2.5 METHODS OF EARTHQUAKE CASUALTY RESEARCH 27

2.5.1 Case-Control 27

2.5.2 Cohort 28

2.5.3 Descriptive and Other Study Types 29

2.5.4 Issues in Earthquake Epidemiology 30

2.6 BUILDING FACTORS 34

2.6.1 Construction Materials 35

2.6.2 Building Damage 39

2.6.3 Quality and Age of Construction 40

2.6.4 Height of Building 41

2.6.5 Damage due to other Human Engineered Non-building Structures 42

2.6.6 Entrapment 43

2.7 INDIVIDUAL FACTORS 46

2.7.1 Location 46

2.7.2 Behavior 48

2.7.3 Demographic Characteristics 51

2.8 MEDICAL ASPECTS OF EARTHQUAKE CASUALTIES 54

2.8.1 Rates of Death and Injury 54

2.8.2 Injury to Death Ratio 56

2.8.3 Injury Severity Scores 57

2.9 EARTHQUAKE FATALITIES 60

2.9.1 Medical Aspects of Earthquake Fatalities 60

2.9.2 Causes of Earthquake Fatalities 61

2.9.3 Timing of Fatalities 63

2.10 EARTHQUAKE INJURIES 63

2.10.1 Medical Aspects of Earthquake Injury 64

2.10.2 Causes of Earthquake Injury 65

2.11 CAUSES OF SERIOUS LONG-TERM INJURY 66

2.11.1 Crush Syndrome 66

2.11.2 Spinal and Neurological Injuries 67

2.11.3 Burns 67

2.12 HOSPITAL USAGE 68

2.13 EARTHQUAKE CASUALTY MODELING 69

2.14 THE CHI-CHI EARTHQUAKE 75

2.14.1 Introduction 75

2.14.2 Geologic Effects 76

2.14.3 Casualties 78

CHAPTER 3 : EVALUATION OF THREE METHODS OF MODELING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKE FATALITIES 80

3.1 INTRODUCTION 80

3.2 METHODOLOGY 82

3.2.1 Background 82

3.2.2 Model Decay Function 88

3.2.3 Model Evaluation and Comparison with Existing Models 90

3.3 RESULTS 96

3.4 DISCUSSION 101

CHAPTER 4 : DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE SPATIAL MODEL FOR CASUALTIES SUSTAINED DURING THE CHI-CHI EARTHQUAKE 107

4.1 INTRODUCTION 107

4.2 METHODOLOGY 110

4.2.1 Casualty Data 110

4.2.2 Ground Motion and Geologic Data and Assumptions 111

4.2.3 Construction Class Data 113

4.2.4 Population Distribution Assumptions 114

4.2.5 Seismic Model and Assumptions 115

4.2.6 Casualty Vulnerability Functions 117

4.3 RESULTS 118

4.3.1 Fatality Vulnerability Functions 118

4.3.2 Fatality Risk Map 120

4.3.3 Injury Vulnerability Function 123

4.3.4 Injury Risk Map 124

4.4 DISCUSSION 127

CHAPTER 5 : ASSOCIATION BETWEEN FATALITIES AND GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS IN THE CHI-CHI EARTHQUAKE 134

5.1 INTRODUCTION 134

5.2 METHODOLOGY 136

5.2.1 Casualty Data and Casualty Vulnerability Function Derivation 136

5.2.2 Ground Motion Data and Processing of Ground Motion Records 138

5.2.3 Building Inventory Data and Building Class Specific Analyses 141

5.3 RESULTS 144

5.3.1 MMI and Epicentral Distance 144

5.3.2 PGA and Spectral Acceleration 146

5.3.3 Building Class Specific Instrumental Ground Motion 151

5.4 DISCUSSION 157

CHAPTER 6 : APPLICATION OF SPATIAL MODELING TECHNIQUES TO CASUALTY ESTIMATION FOR THE 1976 TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE 162

6.1 INTRODUCTION 162

6.2 DESCRIPTIVE BACKGROUND ON THE TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE 163

6.2.1 Historical Seismicity 163

6.2.2 Seismological Aspects of the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake 165

6.2.3 Construction Types and Techniques in Tangshan 166

6.2.4 Casualties 167

6.3 METHODOLOGY 170

6.3.1 Population Data and Modeling Assumptions 170

6.3.2 Seismic Data and Modeling Assumptions 172

6.3.3 Building Inventory Data and Modeling Assumptions 172

6.3.4 Casualty Vulnerability Function Derived from Chi-Chi 173

6.3.5 Statistical Criteria Comparing Modeled to "Observed" Results 178

6.3.6 Spatial Mapping of Modeled and "Observed" Results 179

6.4 RESULTS 182

6.5 DISCUSSION 184

CHAPTER 7 : CONCLUSIONS 187

REFERENCES 192

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