Winning Hearts and Minds: The Role of Rebel Service Provision in Civil Conflicts Público
Pang, Tianyi (Spring 2020)
Abstract
As an important part of the strategy of winning “hearts and minds” of the people, many rebel groups provide substantive benefits and services to civilians in their captured territories. While some rebels provide services that are open to everyone including members of the incumbent government, while other groups provide benefits only to their members or supporters. Why do rebel groups invest vast amount of resources in providing social services to the general public? Does increasing the inclusivity of service provision help rebel groups secure more favorable outcomes? This thesis proposes that exclusive services only to rebel members provide incentives for joining the group, while inclusive services can reach a more general population and help rebels gain public support as well as recognition both domestically and internationally. Using a group-conflict analysis of 253 civil wars around the world from 1946 to 2003, this thesis tests the effects of different levels of education and healthcare provision. The results suggest that more inclusive levels of healthcare or education provision is associated with more established domestic support and international recognition. However, providing more extensive levels of social services does not have a statistically significant impact on increasing the possibility of rebel groups winning the conflicts. This thesis provides a systematic understanding of the effect of variations of rebel service provision and provides implications for both insurgencies and counterinsurgency strategies.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………… 1
Literature Review …………………………………………………………………… 4
Theory and Hypotheses …………………………………………………………… 10
Data and Methods …………………………………………………………………… 15
Results …………………………………………………………………………… 23
Discussion …………………………………………………………………………… 38
Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………… 46
Bibliography …………………………………………………………………………… 49
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