The Looming Threat of Reduced Storm Decay: Measuring Multi-Regional State and Local Preparedness and Responsiveness to Hurricanes 公开

Abstract

One of the most consequential impacts of climate change is hurricanes that are strengthened by reduced storm decay. Before the severe impacts of climate change and the resultant increased of ocean surface temperatures, storms weakened as they moved over cooler air and dissipated soon after or even before they could cause severe damage on land. Increasingly warmer ocean waters decreased the hurricane decaying process. This not only elongated their duration and widened the area of devastation, but also increased the frequency of the onset of hurricane. Historically, hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin were major threats primarily to states in the Gulf Coast region of the United States. With the worsening impact of climate change, northern states started to see hurricanes as their new normal. Local and state governments faced increasing challenges to develop proactive mitigation measures and adoption policies.

This thesis hypothesizes that the more that in-land communities that are impacted by destructive hurricanes, the more local, state, and federal governments react and take preventative actions in the future, drawing from past experiences. A corollary hypothesis that follows from here is that Northern states benefit from lessons learned in the South to mitigate the devastations of hurricanes and adopt their lifestyles as well as business and government practices as the new normal increasingly daunts these areas. To test both hypotheses, I utilize two northern states (New York and New Jersey) and two southern states (Texas and Florida) and analyzed their hurricane preparedness and responsiveness before and after hurricane hit. The lack of readily available data and difficulties of gathering data from disparate sources restricted the scope of the study and limited the utility of the outcome of the study. However, the findings of the study that shed preliminary light on this matter rejected the primary hypothesis but rejected the corollary.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

 

I.              Introduction………………………………………………………………………….1

II.            The Impact of the Climate Problem…………………………………………………4

A.  Defining Reduced Storm Decay…………………………………………….5

B.   Warming Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Implications……………….7

C.   Brown Ocean Effect…………………………………………………………7

III.          Research Design………………………………………………………..……………8

A.  Analytic Framework…………………………………………………………8

B.   The States: Similarities and Differences…………………………………….9

C.   Defining Lessons Learned…………………………………………………..12

D.  Time Period and Hurricane Data……………………………………………13

IV.         Data, Indicators, and Limitations……………………………………………………21

A.  Response Indicators…………………………………………………………22

i.              Government Communication and Coordination…………………….22

ii.            Emergency Supplies…………………………………………………22

iii.           Infrastructural Integrity……………………………………………...23

B.   Classifying State and Local Responses……………………………………...23

i.              Government Communication and Coordination…………………….24

ii.            Emergency Supplies…………………………………………………25

iii.           Infrastructural Integrity………………………………………………26

C.   Composite Index……………………………………………………………..27

V.           Results ……………………………………………………………………………….28

A.  Texas...…………………………………………………………………………...28

                                              i.    Hurricane Alicia………………………………………………………….28

                                            ii.    Hurricane Harvey………………………………………………………...30

B.   Florida……………………………………………………………………………30

                                              i.    Hurricane Andrew………………………………………………………..31

                                            ii.    Hurricane Irma…………………………………………………………...32

C.   New Jersey……………………………………………………………………….32

                                              i.    Hurricane Floyd………………………………………………………….34

                                            ii.    Hurricane Ida…………………………………………………………….35

D.  New York………………………………………………………………………...35

                                              i.    Hurricane Floyd………………………………………………………….36

                                            ii.    Hurricane Ida…………………………………………………………….36

VI.         Analysis …………………………………………………………………………….38

A.  General Assessment.…………………………………………………………….38

B.   Reactionary Measures……………………………………………………………39

C.   New Jersey’s Hurricane Floyd Response: Government Communication and Coordination……………………………………………………………………..40

VII.       Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...41

VIII.     Further Research……………………………………………………………………………...42

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Environmental Studies
Degree	B.S.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Environmental Sciences Political Science, General
关键词	reduced storm decay
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Dr. Michael Rich, Emory University
Committee Members	Dr. Shaunna Donaher, Emory University Dr. Talea Mayo, Emory University

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