The Conditional Efficacy of Non-State Intervention on Conflict Intensity: A Bargaining Model Perspective Público
Hayes, Kelsey (Spring 2018)
Abstract
International civil society has increasingly strong influence on states’ treatment of their citizens through improved information sharing and a post-Cold War global emphasis on human rights. The tools available to the international community in encouraging good governance are varied, and produce inconsistent results in changing the target state’s behavior. I engage with a bargaining model analysis to determine which non-state intervention methods are successful at increasing the costs of war and should, therefore, result in a change in the target state’s behavior. I suspect that the efficacy of four common intervention methods, naming and shaming, peace workshops, non-armed intervention, and armed intervention, is conditioned on the ratio of battle deaths, which also affects the state’s perceived costs of war. To test this, I conduct an ordered logistic regression of the interaction of those intervention methods with the ratio of battle deaths on conflict intensity. I find a negative and significant interaction of battle deaths with unarmed peacekeeping, which ceases to be significant at the highest points of conflict intensity. This indicates that once intensity reaches a certain point, states are no longer responsive to third-party pressures, which has important implications for interventionist strategy. I conclude by suggesting some ways in which this model could be further developed, namely through the inclusion of temporal factors and formal modeling.
Table of Contents
Introduction - 1
Literature Review - 2
Theoretical Development - 7
Hypotheses - 10
Methodology - 12
Results of Statistical Analysis -14
Conclusion - 16
Figures - 18
Graph 1: Marginal Effect of Unarmed Intervention on Intensity as the Ratio of Battle Deaths Changes -18
Table 1: Ordered Logistic Regression Results: Effects of Intervention on Intensity as the Ratio of Battlefield Deaths Changes - 19
Table 2: Summary Statistics - 20
References - 21
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