The Conditional Efficacy of Non-State Intervention on Conflict Intensity: A Bargaining Model Perspective Open Access

Hayes, Kelsey (Spring 2018)

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International civil society has increasingly strong influence on states’ treatment of their citizens through improved information sharing and a post-Cold War global emphasis on human rights. The tools available to the international community in encouraging good governance are varied, and produce inconsistent results in changing the target state’s behavior. I engage with a bargaining model analysis to determine which non-state intervention methods are successful at increasing the costs of war and should, therefore, result in a change in the target state’s behavior. I suspect that the efficacy of four common intervention methods, naming and shaming, peace workshops, non-armed intervention, and armed intervention, is conditioned on the ratio of battle deaths, which also affects the state’s perceived costs of war. To test this, I conduct an ordered logistic regression of the interaction of those intervention methods with the ratio of battle deaths on conflict intensity. I find a negative and significant interaction of battle deaths with unarmed peacekeeping, which ceases to be significant at the highest points of conflict intensity. This indicates that once intensity reaches a certain point, states are no longer responsive to third-party pressures, which has important implications for interventionist strategy. I conclude by suggesting some ways in which this model could be further developed, namely through the inclusion of temporal factors and formal modeling.

Table of Contents

Introduction - 1

Literature Review - 2

Theoretical Development - 7

Hypotheses - 10

Methodology - 12

Results of Statistical Analysis -14

Conclusion - 16

Figures - 18

Graph 1: Marginal Effect of Unarmed Intervention on Intensity as the Ratio of Battle Deaths Changes -18

Table 1: Ordered Logistic Regression Results: Effects of Intervention on Intensity as the Ratio of Battlefield Deaths Changes - 19

Table 2: Summary Statistics - 20

References - 21

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