Campaign Promises to Public Policy: An Analysis of Promise Fulfillment during the Presidencies of Donald Trump and Joe Biden Pubblico
Ergul, Kardelen (Spring 2024)
Abstract
This thesis explores the fulfillment of campaign promises by U.S. Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden and examines the mechanisms of promise fulfillment, with a focus on executive directives and traditional legislation-making processes. It adopts a comparative approach to evaluate the promise fulfillment rates of both presidents and investigates the influence of salience on promise fulfillment and fulfillment through traditional legislation-making. The thesis also examines the effects of various factors, including crises such as the pandemic, the number of Senate seats held, and the fixed effects of policy areas on promise fulfillment and fulfillment through traditional legislative means.
The findings reveal that Joe Biden achieved a higher rate of promise fulfillment (55.26%) compared to Donald Trump (42.10%), with a notable portion of Biden's promises (33.33%) being realized through traditional legislative means, in contrast to Trump’s 18.75%. This outcome supports the hypothesis that Donald Trump fulfilled fewer promises compared to Joe Biden because he was not able to successfully navigate the traditional legislation-making processes. Despite similar Congressional compositions during their terms, our study does not support the hypothesis that a majority of the president's party in Congress significantly influences promise fulfillment rates. Furthermore, the research identifies a positive correlation between public opinion on the salience of issues and promise fulfillment. However, the study finds no statistically significant evidence that this relationship is strengthened when promises are fulfilled through traditional legislation. The thesis also suggests that promises related to crisis situations are more likely to be fulfilled, though not necessarily through legislative action. Lastly, an exploration into policy areas deemed important by the public shows that Trump had more success in fulfilling promises in key areas compared to Biden; however, these promises were fulfilled primarily through executive directives.
Table of Contents
Introduction 1
Thesis Statement 3
Key Terms 4
Literature Review 5
Methodology 11
Campaign Promises and Fulfillment 16
Donald Trump 16
International Affairs 16
Foreign Trade 18
Education 19
Social Welfare 21
Health 22
Macroeconomics 24
Labor 26
Transportation 26
Law & Crime 27
Immigration 28
Environment 31
Energy 32
Government Operations 33
Joe Biden 34
International Affairs 34
Education 36
Health 38
Macroeconomics 40
Labor 42
Law & Crime 43
Immigration 44
Environment 46
Energy 47
Government Operations 48
Analysis and Discussion 50
Conclusion 58
Limitations and Further Research 60
Endnotes 62
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