Growth in global diabetes prevalence attributable to populationaging, Adults 20-79, 2003 to 2010 Open Access
Sudharsanan, Nikkil (2013)
Abstract
Introduction
The burden of diabetes has grown tremendously in the past 30 years due to more people developing the disease and surviving to older ages. Major global diabetes studies estimate an additional 150-200 million people will develop diabetes by the year 2030. Parallel with diabetes growth, life expectancy has also grown remarkably in the past 30 years. We report the prevalence of diabetes in 2003 and 2010 and decompose the growth in diabetes between the 2 time-points into the increase in prevalence attributable to changes in the age-composition and the increase in prevalence attributable to changes in the age-specific prevalence of diabetes.
Data
Cross-sectional data on age-specific cases of diabetes for 212 countries were collected from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlases for 2003 and 2010. Cross-sectional data on age-specific population counts for 230 countries were collected from the United Nations World population Prospects, 2010 report.
Methods
We performed a decomposition analysis to split the difference in crude prevalence between the 2003 and 2010 populations into the change in prevalence attributable to differences in the age-composition between 2010 and 2003, and the change in prevalence attributable to differences in the age-specific prevalences.
Results
The prevalence of diabetes has grown between 2003 and 2010 for all age groups in both developed and developing countries. Diabetes prevalence has grown by 1.57 percentage points globally between 2003 and 2010. Globally, only 8.59% of the growth in diabetes between 2003 and 2010 is due to age-composition changes, with 91.41% of the growth attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalence of diabetes. In developed countries, only 5.91% of diabetes prevalence growth is attributable to age-composition changes. In developing countries, 11.23% of the growth of diabetes prevalence between 2003 and 2010 can be attributed to changes in the age-composition.
Conclusion
Based on our analysis, population aging is only responsible for a small percentage of the growth in diabetes prevalence between 2003 and 2010. To adequately quell the rising population risk of diabetes, further research is needed to investigate and quantify the contribution of the social, economic, and behavioral determinants of diabetes.
Table of Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Data................................................................................................................................................. 6
Methods.......................................................................................................................................... 8
Results........................................................................................................................................... 10
Discussion..................................................................................................................................... 14
Conclusion and Public Health Implications................................................................................... 17
References...................................................................................................................................... 18
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