Spatial analysis of vampire bat (Desmodus) transmitted rabies virus outbreaks in livestock across Peru 公开

Vincent, Amanda Slater (2017)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/h702q731b?locale=zh
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Abstract

Purpose: The thesis research investigated the spread of vampire bat transmitted rabies virus in livestock across Peru using reported outbreak data from 2003 to 2016. The thesis research aimed to identify spatio-temporal clusters of rabies outbreaks in livestock, identify the most likely outbreak origins of the spatio-temporal clusters, and estimate the rate at which vampire bat rabies is moving across the landscape in identified outbreak clusters.

Methods: SatScan software was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of outbreaks and simple linear regression analysis was used to find the most likely outbreak origins in clusters and to estimate the weekly rates of rabies spread in clusters.

Results: A total of 8 clusters were identified in a confirmed outbreak dataset and 13 in a suspected outbreak dataset. The regression analysis run on suspected outbreak clusters at the week level estimated rates of spread spanning from 0.22-5.03 kilometers per week and the estimated rates of spread for the confirmed outbreak clusters ranged from 0.33-6.68 kilometers per week.

Conclusions: The outbreak distributions within clusters and r2 values indicated the presence of wavefronts of rabies spread across the landscape. The research can be used to aid vampire bat transmitted rabies control strategies by providing targeted spatial identification and forecasting of existing and future outbreaks in livestock. The potential use of this research in vampire bat rabies control will promote public health by aiding prevention of spillover infections in humans.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………1

Background: Rabies Epidemiology……………………………………………..1

Vampire bat ecology……………………………………………………………………3

Livestock in Peru………………………………………………………………………….5

Viral invasion and seasonal expansion……………………………………….6

Public health implications…………………………………………………………….8

Goals & Questions………………………………………………………………………..9

Methods…………………………………………………………………………………....10

Data………………………………………………………………………………………......10

Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………......11

Results…………………………………………………………………………………......13

Discussion………………………………………………………………………………...15

References………………………………………………………………………………...19

Tables & Figures……………………………………………………………………….22

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