Vulnerability, Resilience, and Disaster Response in a Warming World: Considering Climate Adaptation Finance and Humanitarian Aid in Tandem Open Access

Abstract

Human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing the climate to change. These changes impact temperature and precipitation and are increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, and floods. These disasters can cause or exacerbate a myriad of health problems. Due to the amount of GHGs that have already been released into the atmosphere, even a sudden reduction in emissions would not immediately stop climate change. Therefore, efforts to increase readiness for such disasters is and will continue to be crucial to protect people, communities, and livelihoods. Currently, many countries, especially low- and middle-income countries rely on international humanitarian aid to respond and rebuild following a disaster. International investment in adaptation efforts may be able to lessen future demand for humanitarian aid and save lives if communities are better prepared for disasters before they happen. Previous research suggests that both adaptation funding and humanitarian aid are related to country-level vulnerability to climate hazards, but these two international funding streams have not been considered together. Using data from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and World Bank, this study evaluated the relationships between country-level vulnerability, adaptation funding investments, and humanitarian aid allocations together from 2013 to 2019. Linear mixed models revealed that countries with high vulnerability and high readiness receive the most adaptation funding, but humanitarian aid is not a significant predictor of adaptation funding. Similarly, results indicated that countries with greater vulnerability are more likely to receive humanitarian aid, but adaptation funding is not a significant predictor of aid. Sub-analyses that focused on health and water showed that countries with high health vulnerability receive the most health-related adaptation funding, but water vulnerability is not a significant predictor of water-related adaptation funding. Based on these results, a country’s vulnerability is an important driver of adaptation funding and humanitarian aid, as expected. It is unclear if adaptation funding follows humanitarian aid or vice versa. These relationships are complex and require further study to understand.

Table of Contents

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………1

Methods…………………………………….….…………………………….……………4

Data sources…………………………………………………………………………...4

Figure 1………………………………………………………………….…………….5

Data preparation……………………………………………………………………….7

Statistical analyses…………………………………………………………………….8

Results………………………………………………………….…………….………….11

Table 1…………………………………………………………………….…………12

Figure 2………………………………………………………………………………13

Figure 3………………………………………………………………………………13

Initial Correlations……………………………………………….…….…………….14

Table 2……………………………………………………………………………….15

Models Predicting Adaptation Funding………………………….……………….….16

Health- and Water-specific Analyses…………………………….…….…………….17

Model Predicting Humanitarian Aid…………………………………………………18

Discussion……………………………………………………………………….………18

Conclusions……………………………….………………………………….………….21

References………………………………………………………………….……………23

Appendix I………………………………………………………………………………25

About this Master's Thesis

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School	Rollins School of Public Health
Department	Environmental Health
Degree	M.S.P.H.
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Environmental Health Climate Change
Keyword	climate vulnerability humanitarian aid resilience adaptation climate change climate readiness
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Ebelt, Stefanie, Emory University
Committee Members	Steenland, Kyle, Emory University

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