Filling the Federal Void? Determining the Effectiveness of State-Level Climate Policies Open Access

Abstract

States have historically been the primary drivers of climate change policy in the U.S., particularly with regard to climate pollution from power plants. States have implemented numerous policies designed to either directly curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants, or to encourage energy efficiency and renewable energy growth. With the fate of the proposed federal Clean Power Plan unclear, the need for effective state action is critical. There is an urgency to understand which state-level policies have successfully mitigated power plant emissions, but prior research has assessed policy effectiveness using data prior to the adoption of many policies. I assess 17 policies using the latest state-level power sector CO2 emissions data. I find that GHG emissions caps, GHG emissions standards, and decoupling are associated with the largest reduction in emissions of all policies assessed, and that policies with mandatory compliance are reducing power plant emissions, while voluntary policies are not associated with a reduction in emissions.

Table of Contents

Contents

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..1

Methods and Design………………………………………………………………………..8

Climate and Energy Policies…………………………………………………….....10

Control Variables………………………………………………………………….12

Results and Discussion……………………………………………………………………14

Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………...23

References………………………………………………………………………………...26

Appendix 1. Descriptive Statistics of All Variables Used……………………………….….30

Appendix 2. Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) Analysis for All Models……………………31

Appendix 3. Effect of State-Level Climate and Energy Policies on CO2 Emissions (Effective Policies)…………………………………………………………………………………...34

Appendix 3 Cont. Effect of State-Level Climate and Energy Policies on CO2 Emissions (Effective Policies)………………………………………………………………………...35

Appendix 4. Effect of State-Level Policies on CO2 Emissions (Ineffective Policies)……….36

Appendix 4 Cont. Effect of State-Level Policies on CO2 Emissions (Ineffective Policies)…37

Appendix 5. Effect of RPS and selected policies on emissions…………………………….38

List of Figures

Figure 1. The Kaya Identity Framework …………………………………………………...3

Figure 2. Carbon dioxide emission (million metric tons) from each state during 2013…......10

Figure 3. Effect of State-Level Climate and Energy Policies on CO2 Emissions…………...15

Figure 4. Mean Emissions of Adopting States Before and After Implementation - RGGI…………………………………………………………………………………….23

List of Tables

Table 1. Seventeen state-level climate and energy policies used in this study………………11

Table 2. Description and sources of data used as control variables in the regression model.....................................................................................................................................................13

Table 3. Effect of policies on power sector CO2 emissions, mandatory policies Highlighted...........................................................................................................................................16

Table 4. Effect of policies on power sector CO2 emissions, voluntary policies highlighted………………………………………………………………………….……..17

Table 5. Effect of policies on power Sector CO2 emissions, top 5 policies……………........20

Table 6. Effect of policies on power sector CO2 emissions, state/regional policies………...20

About this Master's Thesis

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School	Laney Graduate School
Department	Environmental Sciences
Degree	MS
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Environmental Sciences
Keyword	State-level policy Renewable electricity Carbon emissions Climate change
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Saikawa, Eri , Emory University
Committee Members	Brosi, Berry J, Emory University Gunderson, Lance, Emory University

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