Post-Election Audits and Voter Confidence in Election Results Público

Abstract

In this study, I ask the question: can post-election audits increase voter confidence in election results? Following the controversy of the 2020 presidential election, especially the Republican-led claims of fraud, there is a concerning trend of decreasing voter confidence in election results. A solution is needed, but few solutions are supported by both political parties. I present post-election audits as a potentially bipartisan, effective solution to improve voter confidence in election results. Through a theory of signals of integrity, I argue that voters feel more confident when they are aware of procedures that are in place to ensure that votes are counted correctly. In this study, post-election audits are considered one such signal of integrity. Through analysis of the Survey of the Performance of American Elections data and data collected from an original survey experiment in the Cooperative Election Study, I uncover existing trends of voter confidence, and study the effects of post-election audits. I find that voters that live in politically competitive states, are Republicans, or saw their preferred candidate lose the last election are on average less confident than voters that live in uncompetitive states, are Democrats, or saw their preferred candidate win. In studying how audits might affect confidence, I find that audit requirements are not a good predictor of confidence, and that audits, particularly partisan audits, have the potential to decrease voter confidence, particularly among Democrats and those who saw their candidate win in the last election. I conclude that the partisan messaging and well-publicized partisan audit in Arizona contributed to a negative response to post-election audits, and that some voters now view them as a way for the losing party in an election to overturn election results, rather than a tool to verify the results of an election.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION 1

REVIEW OF LITERATURE 5

THEORY 13

HYPOTHESES 18

SPAE DATA ANALYSIS 20

CES METHODS 34

CES RESULTS 38

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 65

APPENDIX 71

REFERENCES 73

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Political Science
Degree	B.A.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, Public Administration Statistics Political Science, General
Palabra Clave	voter confidence elections post-election audit election results audit voter election integrity election confidence election fraud risk-limiting audit
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Fraga, Bernard, Emory University
Committee Members	Bolton, Alexander, Emory University Montagnes, Pablo, Emory University

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