Incubation Periods of Dengue Viruses Open Access

Chan, Miranda Y. (2011)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/dr26xx758?locale=en
Published

Abstract

Dengue viruses are major contributors to illness and death throughout the tropical
and subtropical regions of the world. Understanding the dynamics of dengue virus
infection is critical to surveillance and control activities. Here we focus on the timing of
two critical processes: the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), the time between a mosquito
taking an infectious blood meal and becoming infectious to humans; and the intrinsic
incubation period (IIP), the time between an infectious mosquito bite and the onset of
illness in a human. We performed a literature review to identify data on the extrinsic and
intrinsic incubation periods of dengue viruses in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and humans,
respectively. For the EIP, we also collected data on temperature as the effects of
temperature on the EIP are well known if not well defined. We used these data for a
statistical meta-analysis using Bayesian censored time-to-event models. The EIP model
with the best fit, i.e. the lowest deviance information criterion (DIC) value, was the log-
normal model with a median EIP estimate at 30°C of 13.5 days (95% credible interval of
11.3-16.2). The IIP model with the best fit was the Weibull model with the median
estimate of 5.9 days (95% credible interval of 5.6-6.1 days). The results are robust
estimates of incubation periods, their distributions, and their uncertainty. These should be
useful in clinical diagnosis, outbreak investigation, prevention and control programming,
and mathematical modeling of transmission.

Table of Contents



Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION.......................1

METHODS..............................4

RESULTS...............................6

DISCUSSION..........................8

TABLES...............................11

FIGURES..............................13

REFERENCES.........................15

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