Mobilized Migrants: Return Migrant Voting Behavior 公开

Abstract

Abstract
Mobilized Migrants: Return Migrant Voting Behavior
By Sydney Elizabeth Barron

My research examined the relationship between migration experience and higher levels of voting in a cross-national study of return migrants. I used data from both the World Health Organization's World Health Survey and a Los Angeles Times Survey. I conduct both a cross-national examination of migration experience's effect on voting behavior and an in depth examination of this effect in Mexico. My research was not able to support the hypothesis that migration experience causes greater levels of voting with statistical significance. However, in most countries studied, migration experience had a positive substantive effect on voting. The cross-national study found that migration to a similarly democratic country had no substantive or statistically significant effect on voting. While migration to a significantly more or less democratic host country increased the substantive levels of voting, the effect was not statistically significant. The results of the test on Mexico showed that migrants voted only slightly more than non-migrants and that those who have not migrated, but desire migration, were substantively less likely to vote than non-migrants with no desire to migrate. While these results all lacked statistical significance, the findings do support the claim that, in some countries, migration experience could increase voting levels in return migrants. This could be especially true for migrants who return from host countries that are much more or much less democratic than their home countries.

Table of Contents

Literature Review......................................................................................................................................................................4

Background on Migration............................................................................................................................................................4

How Do Migrants Differ From Non-Migrants...................................................................................................................................7

What Is Known About How Migration Experience Affects Individuals' Political Participation.................................................................. 8

What Else Could Cause The Observed Correlation?........................................................................................................................13

Complications: Migrant Networks................................................................................................................................................15

Theory....................................................................................................................................................................................16

Why Do People Vote (The Big Picture).........................................................................................................................................16

Political Environment................................................................................................................................................................17

How Can Life Experiences Increase an Individual's Propensity to Vote?............................................................................................19

Hypothesis..............................................................................................................................................................................20

Research Design......................................................................................................................................................................22

World Health Survey................................................................................................................................................................23

Los Angeles Times Survey........................................................................................................................................................26

World Health Survey Test.........................................................................................................................................................28

Sample..................................................................................................................................................................................28

Independent Variable: Migration................................................................................................................................................28

Table 1: Migrants and Non-Migrants By Country...........................................................................................................................29

Table 2: Democracy Differences Between Home and Host Country By Country..................................................................................31

Dependent Variable: Voting.......................................................................................................................................................31

Control Variables.....................................................................................................................................................................32

Results Using World Health Survey Data......................................................................................................................................34

Test 1.....................................................................................................................................................................................34

Graph 1: Voter Turnout Rates For Migrants and Non-Migrants Using World Health Survey Data............................................................35

Test 2.....................................................................................................................................................................................36

Graph 2: How Host Country Democracy Score Affects the Voting Behavior of Return Migrants Using World Health Survey Data................37

Test 3......................................................................................................................................................................................38

Table 3: Probit Regression Model For Migration and Voting Behavior Using World Health Survey Data....................................................39

Graph 3: Predicted Voting Probabilities For Migrants and Non-Migrants Using World Health Survey Data................................................42

Los Angeles Times Survey Test....................................................................................................................................................42

Sample....................................................................................................................................................................................42

Independent Variable: Migration..................................................................................................................................................43

Dependent Variable:Voting..........................................................................................................................................................44

Control Variables.......................................................................................................................................................................45

Results Using Los Angeles Times Survey Data...............................................................................................................................46

Test 1......................................................................................................................................................................................46

Graph 4: The Relative Mexican Voter Turnouts for Four Categories Using Los Angeles Times Survey Data..............................................47

Graph 5: The Relative Mexican Voter Turnouts for Three Categories Using Los Angeles Times Survey Data............................................48

Test 2......................................................................................................................................................................................48

Table 4: Probit Regression Model For How Migration and Desired Migration Affect Voting Behavior Using Los Angeles Times Survey Data...49

Discussion and Sensitivity Tests..................................................................................................................................................50

Graph 6: The Relative Ages of Migrants and Non-Migrants Using World Health Survey Data.................................................................53

Conclusion...............................................................................................................................................................................53 Bibliography.............................................................................................................................................................................58

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, International Law and Relations Political Science, General
关键词	Voting Behavior Migration
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Reinhardt, Eric, Emory University
Committee Members	Streeb, Gordon L, Emory University Linzer, Drew, Emory University

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