A Deterministic and Probabilistic Analyses of the CarbonTetrachloride Contaminant Plume in Groundwater at the Former UnionCarbide India Limited Factory in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India Öffentlichkeit

Abstract

The Union Carbide India Limited (UCIL) factory in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh is the site of one of the world's worst industrial disasters. In 1984, a gas release of Methyl Isocyanate (MIC) caused the deaths of thousands within weeks and thousands more since. After this incident, the factory operations ceased and the site was abandoned. However, remediation activities have yet to take place, which means that the pesticide products and their production intermediates serve as ongoing pollutants to the environment, in particular, the groundwater. In order to evaluate the effect of this contamination, the following study attempts to describe the contaminant plume of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) in the groundwater using analytical models provided by publicly the available software known as analytical contaminant transport analysis system (ACTS). CCl4 is known to have adverse effects on human health when consumed through the drinking water and is classified as possibly carcinogenic by the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). The calibrated deterministic results show that concentrations of CCL4 do not exceed the U.S. EPA maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) roughly 850m from the source in the northeast direction. Probabilistic simulations show that there is a 100% probability that CCl4 concentrations exceed WHO specified MCL up to the year 2034 at sites 500m, 1000m and 2000m northeast of the UCIL site. Analytical models are an effective tool in decision making for environmental managers and policymakers. As many of the parameters used as inputs for the analytical model were based on sparse field data and literature values, it is recommended that future studies should aim to better characterize the hydrogeological system of which the land surrounding the UCIL site is a part. This information will help to generate more representative analytical models with which to analyze the contaminant plume.

Table of Contents

I. Background (p.1 - p.3)

1. The Bhopal Syndrome

2. The Infamous MIC-tank Explosion

3. Health Effects of MIC-Exposure

II. Introduction (p.3 - p.9)

1. Union Carbide India Limited

2. Contaminated Groundwater in Bhopal

3. Study Objectives

4. Chemical and Contaminant Properties of Carbon Tetrachloride

III. Methods (p.9 - p.12)

1. Modeling Approach and Assumptions

2. Model Input Parameters and Source Definitions for Deterministic Simulations

3. Model Input Parameters for Probabilistic Simulations

IV. Results (p.12 - p.13)

1. Calibration Results

2. Deterministic Model Simulations

3. Probabilistic Model Simulations

V. Discussion and Conclusion ( p.13 - p.16)

1. Contaminant Plume

2. Study Limitations

VI. References (p.17 - p.19)

Figures:

Figure 1: The Central Indian State of Madhya Pradesh (p. 20)

Figure 2: Center for Science and Environment Schematic of UCIL Factory (p.21)

Figure 3: Greenpeace Sampling Locations at the UCIL Factory in Bhopal, India (p.22)

Figure 4: NEERI: Location of Suspected Dump Sites (p.23)

Figure 5a-c: Deterministic Simulation Results for Calibration Target and Model

Simulation (p. 24 - 26)

Figure 6a-b: PDF histograms for Probabilistic Simulations (p.27)

Figure 7a-c: Probabilistic Simulation Results 500m from the Source (p.28 - p.30)

Figure 8a-c: Probabilistic Simulation Results 1000m from the Source (p.31 - p.33)

Figure 9a-c: Probabilistic Simulation Results 2000m from the Source (p.34 - p.36)

About this Master's Thesis

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School	Rollins School of Public Health
Department	Environmental Health
Degree	MPH
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Health Sciences, Public Health Environmental Sciences
Stichwort	ACTS Bhopal Groundwater
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Ryan, P Barry, Emory University
Committee Members	Morris, Maslia, ATSDR Dhara, Ramana, CDC Tolbert, Paige, Emory University

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