Donor-induced Divergence? Issue Polarization and Responsiveness in the Context of the Affordable Care Act, 2006-2016 Público

Abstract

This thesis develops a theory of issue divergence to explain why American political parties take polarized issue positions. I contend that on issues of low salience, elected officials may disregard uncrystallized voter opinion and instead respond to polarized donor opinion. My proposed causal mechanism is the necessity of fundraising; as individual donors make up most of politicians’ fundraising, continuing to appeal to donors on issues is essential. I apply my theory to the American health care reform debate of the 2000s and 2010s, focusing on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Using an original panel dataset composed of survey and American census data, I run twenty-four regressions involving two-way fixed effects and district-level economic controls. Modeling representative vote choice on the ACA as a function of non-donor and donor constituent opinion, I do not find evidence supporting my theory. Increased support for the ACA among a representative’s donor constituents did not increase the likelihood of voting in support of the ACA in Congress. Notably, non-donor opinion was also not predictive. I find evidence that partisanship made Republican representatives significantly less likely to vote in support of the ACA than Democrat representatives. My analysis confirms several of the trends present in the literature, namely that donors are more ideological and polarized than non-donors, that partisanship is a significant predictor of ACA vote choice, and that the ACA was a polarizing issue from the beginning. Further research should address the data limitations present in my study, continue to study how polarized voters may lock in politicians to the party position, and continue to study elite responsiveness on other, less polarizing issues. 

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Literature Review 4

Theory 13

Case Introduction: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 13

Data and Methods 30

Results 48

Discussion 58

Conclusion 67

References 71

Appendices 74

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Political Science
Degree	B.A.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General
Palabra Clave	Parties Polarization Donors Health care Public opinion
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Bolton, Alexander, Emory University
Committee Members	Abramowitz, Alan, Emory University Jones, Maggie, Emory University

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