Essays on Global Youth Tobacco Use: The Role of Cigarette Prices and Regulation 公开

Kostova, Deliana (2010)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/bk128999s?locale=zh
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Abstract

The first chapter estimates the impact of cigarette prices on
youth smoking in lower-income countries using data from the Global Youth Tobacco
Survey (GYTS). Country-level heterogeneity is addressed with fixed effects and by
directly controlling for confounding environmental factors such as local anti-smoking
sentiment, cigarette advertising, anti-smoking media messages, and compliance with
youth access restrictions. I find that cigarette price is an important determinant of both
smoking participation and conditional demand. The estimated price elasticity of
participation is -0.63. The likelihood of participation decreases with anti-smoking
sentiment and increases with exposure to cigarette advertising. The estimated price
elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is approximately -1.2. Neither anti-smoking
sentiment, cigarette advertising, nor access restrictions have an impact on the intensity of
smoking among current smokers, but exposure to anti-smoking media may reduce the
number of cigarettes smoked.
The second chapter investigates the impact of cigarette prices on smoking
initiation and cessation among youth in developing countries using GYTS data. The effect of price is identified by country fixed effects
which control for unobserved environmental characteristics such as anti-smoking
sentiment. Three types of duration analysis are used to examine the sensitivity of the
results with respect to empirical specification. These are the discrete-time logit model,
the Cox hazard model, and the split-population duration model. Unlike the unsplit logit
and Cox models which assume that all subjects have positive hazards of initiation
(cessation), the split-population model allows for the possibility that for some individuals
the hazard is zero. A statistically significant impact of cigarette price on the initiation
(cessation) hazards is identified in the split-population analysis but not by the logit and
Cox models. The conclusion is that individuals who are intrinsic non-smokers may not
be as responsive to cigarette prices, so including them in the sample along with the
potential smokers will attenuate the overall price effect. After accounting for the
probability that some people will never smoke and some smokers will never quit, the
price elasticity of the hazard of starting smoking is estimated at -0.165. The price
elasticity of the hazard of quitting is estimated at 0.27.

Table of Contents


Table of Contents








Page
Chapter 1









1
1. Introduction








1
2. Literature review







6
3. Data and variables







13
4. Methods









22

4.1 Tobit








23

4.2 Two-part model






25

4.3 Zero-inflated Poisson






27
5. Empirical application and identification concerns



28

5.1 Multicollinearity






31

5.2 Endogeneity of price






32

5.3 Country vs. region fixed effects




34

5.4 Clustering







36
6. Results









38

6.1 Two-part model






38

6.2 Sensitivity checks on the two-part model



42



6.2.1. Using imported-brand prices instead of local-brand


cigarette prices






42

6.2.2. Using Tobacco production per capita as a proxy for

anti-smoking sentiment





43

6.2.3. Using region fixed effects instead of country fixed effects
44




Table of Contents continued






Page
7. Conclusion








118
Bibliography








120



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