The Banning of Political Parties by Constitutional Courts: A Turkish Perspective Open Access
Friedman, Ross (2010)
Abstract
Abstract
The Banning of Political Parties by Constitutional Courts: A
Turkish Perspective
By Ross J. Friedman
The author examines the conditions under which constitutional
courts choose to close political
parties. In order to understand the factors that encourage or
discourage a court to close a political
party, the author focuses on the case of Turkey. The rulings of the
Constitutional Court provide
ample variation between closed parties and not closed parties for
study. The author tests four
hypotheses, focusing on threats to a regime, fragmentation, public
support, and international
influences. Quantitative analysis is used to determine the
statistical significance of these variables
individually. The author also considers independent variables in
both a multivariable model and an
interactive hypothesis model. From the analysis, the author
concludes that a significant relationship
exists between threat and the likelihood to close political
parties. The author also discovers that
fragmentation is a significant factor in the banning of political
parties. Additionally, the author
asserts that international influences are an important
consideration for courts when considering
whether or not to close a political party. From these findings, the
author discusses broader
implications for the banning of political parties in a democratic
setting.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction
...................................................................................................................
1
Chapter 2: Theory
...........................................................................................................................7
Chapter 3: The Turkish Case
............................................................................................................19
Chapter 4: Data
.............................................................................................................................32
Chapter 5: Estimation and
Results......................................................................................................42
Table 5.1: Result and Threat Crosstabulation
......................................................................................43
Table 5.2: Result and Absolute Majority Crosstabulation
........................................................................45
Table 5.3: Result and Veto Players Crosstabulation
...............................................................................46
Table 5.4: Difference of Means test of Age of Political Parties
.................................................................48
Table 5.5: Public Support for Entry to the European Union to Turkey
........................................................51
Table 5.6: Imports from the European Union to
Turkey............................................................................51
Table 5.7: Exports to the European
Union.............................................................................................52
Figure 5.1: Likelihood of Closure with Respect to
Time.............................................................................53
Table 5.8: Complete Multivariate Logisitic Regression Models
....................................................................55
Table 5.9: Predicted Values of
Threat..................................................................................................55
Table 5.10: Predicted Likelihood of Closure Based Upon Veto Players
.........................................................56
Figure 5.2: Predicted Values with Respect to Party Age
..........................................................................57
Figure 5.3: Predicted Values with Respect to EU Exports
.........................................................................58
Figure 5.4: Predicted Values with Respect to EU Imports
.........................................................................59
Figure 5.5: Predicted Values with Respect to
Time..................................................................................60
Table 5.11: Interaction of Threat Conditioned by Age
.............................................................................61
Table 5.12: Predicted Probabilities of
Closure.........................................................................................62
Table 5.13: Interaction between Threat and Exports to the EU
................................................................62
Table 5.14: Predicted Probabilities of
Closure.........................................................................................63
Table 5.15: Interaction of Threat Conditioned by Veto Players
.................................................................63
Table 5.16: Predicted Probabilities of
Closure.........................................................................................64
Table 5.17: Result and Far Left Parties
Crosstabulation............................................................................65
Table 5.18: Result and Religious Parties Crosstabulation
..........................................................................66
Table 5.19: Result and Kurdish Parties
Crosstabulation.............................................................................68
Chapter 6:
Conclusion........................................................................................................................71
About this Honors Thesis
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