How Does Keqiang Index Work for the Economy of China? Pubblico

Abstract

How to keep track of Chinese economy? I address this question by comparing Keqiang Index with GDP and analyzing movements of different components from 2000 to 2014. I find that Keqiang Index is more consistent with GDP in areas which second industry has a heavier share among all economics activities. I also consider that the indicator, Loan Disbursed by Bank, will distort Keqiang Index and generate gaps between Keqiang Index and GDP. I find that cargo volume by rail is not representative enough for every region, for example, Tianjin and Sichuan. I also notice that the volatility of Keqiang Index is much larger than GDP, by comparing the standard deviation of each.

Table of Contents

I. Introduction. 1

II. Literature Review. 3

III. Data and Methodology. 5

IV. Sample Results of Keqiang Index. 6

V. Findings on Aggregate Level. 10

VI. Other Findings. 14

VII. Conclusion and Further Steps. 15

VIII. Work Cited. 17

IX. Appendix. 18

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Economics
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Economics, General
Parola chiave	Macroeconomics Chinese Economy Keqiang Index
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Chen, Kaiji, Emory University
Committee Members	Francis-Tan, Andrew, Emory University Ristaino, Christine, Emory University

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