All Terrorism Is Local? A Quantitative Analysis of Al Qaeda Affiliates and Civil Conflict Público

Abstract

Scholarship on Al Qaeda affiliates (AQAs) has focused largely on these groups' lethality or relationship to Al Qaeda's transnational structure. Instead of analyzing these groups as a monolithic unit, I disaggregate them in order to answer the questions: "What explains the variation in Al Qaeda affiliate (AQA) behavior? To what extent are AQAs motivated by local political aims versus the transnational jihad ideology espoused by Al Qaeda Central?" In this thesis, I examine the universe of violent Islamist groups that have affiliated with Al Qaeda, finding that there is unexplained variation in the focus of the groups' violent efforts: the local struggle versus the transnational jihad. This variation can be explained by establishing a typology of Al Qaeda affiliate groups (AQAs) in order to accurately assess their behavior as locally politically motivated or transnationally driven. Further quantitative analysis reveals that risk factors for civil conflict are likely to lead a group towards one of these behavior types. This supports the arguments that AQAs have differing motivations that determine their violent behavior, and that civil conflict is a key factor in determining those motivations.

Table of Contents

I. Introduction 1

The Origins of the "Far Enemy" Ideology: Background on Al Qaeda Central 5

II. Literature Review 8

III. From Theory to Typology 13

PART I: AL QAEDA AFFILIATE TYPOLOGY

IV. Research Design, Data, & Methods 20

V. Analysis & Results - PART ONE 25

PART TWO: AL QAEDA AFFILIATES AND CIVIL CONFLICT

VI. Theory and Research Design 52

VII. Risk Factors for Civil War and AQA Behavior 62

VIII. Discussion 68

IX. Conclusion 69

References 75

Appendix 80

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, International Law and Relations Political Science, General
Palabra Clave	Civil War Al Qaeda Terrorism
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Ramirez, Shawn L, Emory University
Committee Members	Doner, Richard, Emory University Cherribi, Sam, Emory University

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