“Freedom at War with Fear”: An Evaluation of Rule of Law and Security Sector Reform Aid’s Impact on Human Rights during the War on Terror Público

Abstract

Foreign aid for the promotion of rule of law and security sector reform was a central tenet of the War on Terror. This thesis analyzes the effect of American Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance aid between 2002 and 2012 on human rights outcomes in recipient countries, evaluating changes over time in respect for various rights and the rationale of security sector reform more broadly. This theory, which has over time been increasingly adopted by the US government, posits that the development of security and rule of law capacity improves security and human rights outcomes, leading to further citizen buy-in and creating a self-reinforcing cycle of positive change. To evaluate this theory, I drew on American aid data and two human rights datasets, and further analyzed outcomes by level of relative aid, whether or not they were a partner country in the War on Terror, and their development status. Using a cross-sectional panel regression analysis, I find very few significant results, and very little evidence of positive changes among aid-recipient countries throughout this decade. Partner countries had the most significant results, showing significant decreases in the respect for rights among their governments as a result of American aid, supported by two robustness tests. Contrary to the theory and the hypotheses, the findings suggest that security sector reform theory cannot be assumed to work across all contexts, and that the nature of American interests within recipient countries was a far more important factor influencing the change in respect for rights during this period. The findings also support the contention that in order for aid to be successful, its distribution and implementation must be tailored to the unique context of each country. Further research should focus on individual countries through case studies and process-tracing, and dive deeper into various factors within recipient countries that affected how aid was implemented. 

Table of Contents

Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………….….1

Literature Review………………………………………………………………………………….3

History of US Foreign Aid…………..…………………………………………………….3

Foreign Aid Distribution…………...……………………………………………………...6

Does Aid Work?...................................................................................................................9

Rule of Law…………………………...………………………………………………….11

Security Sector Reform…………………………………………………………………..13

Criticisms……………………...…………………………………………………………15

Theory and Hypothesis…………………………………………………………………………..21

Model of Implementation………………………………………………………………..21

SSR Theory………………………...…………………………………………………….22

Outcomes and Measurement…………..…………………………………………………23

Research Design………………………………………………………………………………….27

Scope Conditions………………………………………………………………………...27

Case Selection……………………………………………………………………………28

Working Definitions……………………………………………………………………...29

Research Design………………………………………………………………………….30

Data and Variables……………………………………………………………………………….32

Aid Data…………………...……………………………………………………………..32

Human Rights Data………………………………………………………………………32

Time Frames of the Analysis………………………...…………………………………..33

Aid Level…………………………..…………………………………………………….34

Partner Countries………………………………………………………………………...35

Developing Countries………………………………...………………………………….38

Results……………………………………………………………………………………………40

Overall Trends in Aid and Human Rights……………………………………….………40

Analysis Results…………………………………………...……………………………..41

Further Tests: Robustness Test One……………………………………………………...51

Further Tests: Robustness Test Two……………………………………………………...54

Discussion………………………………………………………………………………………..58

Broader Discussion of Findings…………………………………...……………………..58

Implications for SSR Theory……………………………………...……………………..60

Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………………69

Works Cited…………………………………………………...…………………………………72

Appendix I: Coding Rules…….…………………………………………..……………………..78

Coding Rules……………………………………………………………………………..78

Miscellaneous Notes……………………………………………………………………..83

Appendix II: Results Tables for Robustness Tests………………………………..……………...85

Appendix III: Terror Attacks Chart……………………………………………………………....90

List of Figures

Figure 1: Changes in Security Rights Scores - VDEM………………………………………….41

Figure 2: Changes in Security Rights Scores - CIRIGHTS……………………………………...42

Figure 3: Changes in Justice Rights Scores - VDEM……………………………………………42

Figure 4: Changes in Justice Rights Scores - CIRIGHTS……………………………………….43

Figure 5: Changes in Public Civil and Political Rights - VDEM………………………………..43

Figure 6: Changes in Private Civil and Political Rights - VDEM……………………………….44

Figure 7: Changes in Civil and Political Rights Scores - CIRIGHTS…………………………...44

Figure 8: Changes in Lower-Receiving Rights Scores - VDEM………………………………...45

Figure 9: Changes in Lower-Receiving Rights Scores - CIRIGHTS……………………………45

Figure 10: Comparative Changes in Security Scores - VDEM………………………………….85

Figure 11: Comparative Changes in Security Scores - CIRIGHTS……………………….……..85

Figure 12: Comparative Changes in Justice Scores - VDEM……………………………………86

Figure 13: Comparative Changes in Justice Scores - CIRIGHTS……………………………….86

Figure 14: Comparative Changes in Public Civil and Political Rights - VDEM………………...87

Figure 15: Comparative Changes in Private Civil and Political Scores - VDEM……………….87

Figure 16: Comparative Changes in Civil and Political Scores - CIRIGHTS…………………...88

Figure 17: Comparison of All Partner Countries vs. No Iraq and Afghanistan - VDEM………..88

Figure 18: Comparison of All Partner Countries vs. No Iraq and Afghanistan - CIRIGHTS…...89

Figure 19: Terror Attacks Over Time……………………………………………………………90

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Political Science
Degree	B.A.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, International Relations
Palabra Clave	Foreign Aid Development Human Rights Rule of Law
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	David Davis, Emory University
Committee Members	Danielle Jung, Emory University Eric Reinhardt, Emory University

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