Why We Choose War: How neuroscience can help explain leaders' toughest decisions Öffentlichkeit
Thompson, Griffin (Spring 2023)
Published
Abstract
As the maxim goes, “with great power comes great responsibility.” Well, what happens when those in power neglect their responsibility? World governments afford an incredible amount of power to individual heads of state, and citizens around the world are at the whim of these political leaders. Therefore, it is vital to use new and innovative techniques to analyze leaders’ decisions. Neuroscience, with its explanatory power of behavior and choices, can complement many existing models of decision theory. Subsequently, this necessitates the construction of a novel framework that deploys recent findings in neuroscience, relies on established theories in political science, and expands on research from adjacent fields to craft a holistic tool of analysis that examines these decisions. This thesis constructs and proves the utility of such a framework. Set against the backdrop of the War in Afghanistan, this thesis uses former president Barack Obama’s decision to increase troops levels in country as a case study to design a framework that both highlights the necessity of including neuroscience in analyzing political decisions and provides improvement on prior frameworks that examine political decision-making. This framework approaches these decisions from four key tenets: uncertainty, prediction, social context, and moral dilemmas. Each tenet comprises a chapter. Each chapter examines a tenet’s philosophy, relevant neuroscience, and political application and relevance. Finally, supplemented by recent research in neuroscience, this thesis outlines an effective strategy to examine these decisions and demonstrates improvements that institutions can make to prevent bad decisions and remain resilient against their potential consequences. In all, this thesis proves the utility of the suggested framework for analyzing the decisions of political leaders, while also providing proof that institutions need to remain robust to the dangers of increasing levels of power afforded to leaders.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Standing on the Shoulders of Giants
Chapter One: Uncertainty
Bob the Turkey, a U.S. President, and David Hume walk into a Thesis
Relying on Theory
The Theory of Evolution
The Three Complementary Hypotheses about Human Cognition
The Social Brain Hypothesis
The Expensive Tissue Hypothesis
The Critical Brain Hypothesis
What is Uncertainty?
Foundational Pieces for Characterizing Uncertainty
Comprehensively Characterizing Uncertainty
An Examination of the Neurophysiology of Uncertainty
A Bridge to Behavior
A President’s Welcome
Known Knowable Uncertainty—A Question of Quantity
Chapter Two: Prediction
The Art of “Strategery”
Humans and temporality, causality, and complexity
A Comment on Temporality
A Comment on Causality
A Comment on Complexity
The Neuroscience of Probability
The Neuroscience of Prediction
The Art of Prediction: Obama’s Af-Pak Odyssey
Chapter Three: Social Context
The White House—A Seat of Power and a Prison
A Note on Sociality: From College to the White House
The Bureaucratic Politics Model
The Af-Pak Strategic Review—A Bureaucrat’s Dream
Chapter Four: Moral Dilemmas
Surprise! Here’s the Nobel Peace Prize sprinkled with irony.
What are morals anyways?
Utilitarianism
Deontology
Virtue Ethics
The Construction of Morals (the Ultimate and the Proximal)
The Ultimate
The Proximate
The Neuroscience of Moral Dilemmas
The Fragility of Human Thinking
Concluding Thoughts: So, Why Do We Choose War?
Bibliography
About this Honors Thesis
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