Why We Choose War: How neuroscience can help explain leaders' toughest decisions Open Access

Thompson, Griffin (Spring 2023)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/3x816n95f?locale=en
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Abstract

As the maxim goes, “with great power comes great responsibility.” Well, what happens when those in power neglect their responsibility? World governments afford an incredible amount of power to individual heads of state, and citizens around the world are at the whim of these political leaders. Therefore, it is vital to use new and innovative techniques to analyze leaders’ decisions. Neuroscience, with its explanatory power of behavior and choices, can complement many existing models of decision theory. Subsequently, this necessitates the construction of a novel framework that deploys recent findings in neuroscience, relies on established theories in political science, and expands on research from adjacent fields to craft a holistic tool of analysis that examines these decisions. This thesis constructs and proves the utility of such a framework. Set against the backdrop of the War in Afghanistan, this thesis uses former president Barack Obama’s decision to increase troops levels in country as a case study to design a framework that both highlights the necessity of including neuroscience in analyzing political decisions and provides improvement on prior frameworks that examine political decision-making. This framework approaches these decisions from four key tenets: uncertainty, prediction, social context, and moral dilemmas. Each tenet comprises a chapter. Each chapter examines a tenet’s philosophy, relevant neuroscience, and political application and relevance. Finally, supplemented by recent research in neuroscience, this thesis outlines an effective strategy to examine these decisions and demonstrates improvements that institutions can make to prevent bad decisions and remain resilient against their potential consequences. In all, this thesis proves the utility of the suggested framework for analyzing the decisions of political leaders, while also providing proof that institutions need to remain robust to the dangers of increasing levels of power afforded to leaders. 

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Standing on the Shoulders of Giants

Chapter One: Uncertainty

Bob the Turkey, a U.S. President, and David Hume walk into a Thesis

Relying on Theory

The Theory of Evolution

The Three Complementary Hypotheses about Human Cognition

The Social Brain Hypothesis

The Expensive Tissue Hypothesis

The Critical Brain Hypothesis

What is Uncertainty?

Foundational Pieces for Characterizing Uncertainty

Comprehensively Characterizing Uncertainty

An Examination of the Neurophysiology of Uncertainty

A Bridge to Behavior

A President’s Welcome

Known Knowable Uncertainty—A Question of Quantity

Chapter Two: Prediction

The Art of “Strategery”

Humans and temporality, causality, and complexity

A Comment on Temporality

A Comment on Causality

A Comment on Complexity

The Neuroscience of Probability

The Neuroscience of Prediction

The Art of Prediction: Obama’s Af-Pak Odyssey

Chapter Three: Social Context

The White House—A Seat of Power and a Prison

A Note on Sociality: From College to the White House

The Bureaucratic Politics Model

The Af-Pak Strategic Review—A Bureaucrat’s Dream

Chapter Four: Moral Dilemmas

Surprise! Here’s the Nobel Peace Prize sprinkled with irony.

What are morals anyways?

Utilitarianism

Deontology

Virtue Ethics

The Construction of Morals (the Ultimate and the Proximal)

The Ultimate

The Proximate

The Neuroscience of Moral Dilemmas

The Fragility of Human Thinking

Concluding Thoughts: So, Why Do We Choose War?

Bibliography

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