From Terror to Politics: How Nationalist Terrorist Organizations Evolve 公开

Slivova, Margarita (2011)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/2514nk55f?locale=zh
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Abstract

Abstract
From Terror to Politics: How Nationalist Terrorist Organizations Evolve
By Margarita Slivova
This paper examines how nationalist terrorist organizations (NTO) evolve from military units
into political units that use peaceful means in order to achieve their goals. The main hypothesis
states that NTO's are more likely to evolve into political groups when they have a higher level of
opportunity for political competition within the given state. A further hypothesis states that
evolution is more likely to take place if the organizational structure of the NTO is more cohesive
and streamlined. The theory was tested using three cases, the IRA in Northern Ireland, the ANC
in South Africa, and the ETA in the Basque Country of Spain. Of the three cases the ANC
exhibited the highest level of evolution, the IRA exhibited a moderate level of evolution, and the
ETA exhibited very little evolution. The results from the three case studies generally supported
the theory and hypotheses stated above.

Table of Contents


Table of Contents
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………....1
Literature Review…………………………………………………………………………………………...3
Hypothesis…………………………………………………………………………………..........................7
Variables and Case Selection……………………………………………………………………………….8
Dependent Variable……………………………………………………………………………………...8
Independent Variable……………………………………………………………………………………9
Case Selection………………………………………………………………………………………….13
Expected Results…………………………………………………………………………………………..13
Case Study: IRA in Northern Ireland……………………………………………………………………...14
Background……………………………………………………………………………….....................14
Levels of Activity………………………………………………………………………………………15
History of the Political Wing and Possibility for Democratic Competition…………………………...16
Organizational Structure……………………………………………………………………………….21
Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………...23
Case Study: ANC in South Africa………………………………………………………………………...25
Background…………………………………………………………………………………………….25
Levels of Activity………………………………………………………………………………………27
History of the Political Wing and Possibility for Democratic Competition…………………………...28
Organizational Structure……………………………………………………………………………….30
Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………...31
Case Study: ETA in Basque Country Spain……………………………………………………………….33
Background…………………………………………………………………………………………….33
Levels of Activity………………………………………………………………………………………35
History of the Political Wing and Possibility for Democratic Competition…………………………...36
Organizational Structure……………………………………………………………………………….38
Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………...39
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………...42
Further Research……………………………………………………………………………………….45
Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………………46
Graphs
Graph 1. Number of IRA Attacks…………………………………………………………………………16
Graph 2. Percent Votes for Sinn Fein in Westminster Elections………………………………………….20
Graph 3. Number of ANC Attacks………………………………………………………………………...28
Graph 4. Percent Votes for ANC for National Assembly…………………………………………………29
Graph 5. Number of ETA Attacks from 1970-2008………………………………………………………36
Graph 6. Percent Votes for Batasuna in National Assembly……………………………………………...38
Tables
Table 1. IRA Timeline…………………………………………………………………………………….24
Table 2. ANC Timeline……………………………………………………………………………………32
Table 3. ETA Timeline……………………………………………………………………………………40

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