Estimating the county-level effects of the Tennessee Valley Test Farm Program on U.S. agriculture (1935-1950) 公开

Abstract

This study seeks to understand to the effects of the Tennessee Valley Authority Test Farm Program (1935-1950) on the race of farm operators, size and number of farms, and rates of farm ownership. We utilized historic population (Haines et al. 2018) and agricultural census data (Haines 2010) collected through IPUMS, and soil viability data from Schaetzl et al. (2012), combined with a new county-level data set on the timing of Test Farm Program Applications. The analysis is divided into two parts. First, OLS regression was used to identify the economic, demographic, and environmental factors that made counties more likely to have farms apply to the program. Then, we applied the difference-in-difference with two-way fixed effects and differential timing methodology from Calloway & Sant’Ana (2021) to estimate the average effects of treatment (ATT) from the entire time period, and for treatment during 5-year time periods on the number, size, and value of farms, along with the fraction of minority farms operators and the percentage of whole-ownership. Our findings suggest that counties with farmers who applied to the TFP were predominantly agrarian, with low crop, and livestock values, relatively unproductive soils, fewer acres of stable crops such as corn and wheat, lower property values, high rural populations, and slightly more small, wholly-owned farms. We also provide evidence to suggest that counties with farmers that first applied prior to 1940 experienced first-mover advantages through small, but statistically significant increases in property values and rates of whole farm ownership. The findings oppose the narrative in Selznick (1953) that the Test Farm Program preferred large, wealthy farms, and instead describes the program as being slightly beneficial for smallholder farmers looking to make a living off of and own their own land.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Institutional Background

Data

Methods

Results

Discussion

Bibliography

Appendix

About this Honors Thesis

Rights statement

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School	Emory College
Department	Economics
Degree	B.A.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Economics, Agricultural Economics, Labor Economics, History
关键词	Economics Tennessee Valley Authority Fertilizer Agriculture Test Farm Program
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Jones, Maggie, Emory University
Committee Members	O'Connell, Stephen, Emory University Burchfield, Emily, Emory University

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