Parallelism and Polarity: Citizenship and Latino Partisanship in the United States Public
Velez, Isabel (Spring 2025)
Abstract
An observed rise in Latino support for the Republican Party in recent years may come as a surprise to some—or not. Some argue that “cultural conservatism” predisposes Latinos to align with the GOP, while research shows that the Hispanic community has historically aligned with the Democratic Party. In this study, I explore how partisanship is influenced by perceived threat, acculturation, and ethnic attachment with a focus on how this varies by citizenship status. Building on threat mobilization theory, I argue that increased exposure to punitive immigration policy perceived as threatening may drive Latinos away from the Republican Party. Acculturation considers ways in which people adopt languages and a country’s norms over time, and ethnic attachment posits that people with higher linked fate and feelings of community closeness are more incentivized to mobilize in a unified manner for their pan-ethnic group’s interests. Based on this framework, I posit the following hypotheses: 1) Latinos who are more likely to be affected by negative immigration policy and rhetoric (e.g. through personal experiences or family ties) are more likely to identify with the Democratic Party; and that 2) Highly acculturated Latinos are more likely to possess a lower degree of ethnic attachment and consequently, identify less strongly with the Democratic Party. To test these hypotheses, I use data from the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS) to construct composite indices that measure acculturation, ethnic attachment, and perceived threat. I then run a series of regression models to test their effect on party affiliation.
Both hypotheses are partially supported—perceived threat shows a strong, significant association with Democratic affiliation, and acculturation appears to weaken ethnic attachment, reducing the likelihood of identifying as a Democrat. I also find variation by citizenship status: naturalized citizens are more likely to identify as Republican across all measures of partisanship, while non-citizen immigrants lean heavily Democratic, followed by U.S.-born Latinos. These patterns also suggest that political socialization, shaped by unique experiences tied to citizenship status, may play a large role in how acculturation, perceived threat, and ethnic attachment influence partisanship.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1 Pan-ethnicity and Policy
2.2 National Origin and Perceived Threat
2.3 Acculturation
2.4 Ethnic Attachment
3. Hypotheses
4. Measurement and Data
4.1 Selecting Latino Respondents
4.2 Identifying Citizenship Status
4.3 Dependent Variable
4.4 Independent Variables
4.4.1 Perceived Threat
4.4.2 Acculturation
4.4.3 Ethnic Attachment
5. Results
5.2 Descriptive Statistics
5.3 Regression Results
5.3.1 Perceived Threat
5.3.2 Acculturation and Ethnic Attachment
5.3.3 Final Model
6. Discussion
7. Conclusion
References
About this Honors Thesis
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Primary PDF
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Parallelism and Polarity: Citizenship and Latino Partisanship in the United States () | 2025-04-09 03:42:29 -0400 |
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Supplemental Files
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2020 CMPS Dataset (This is the dataset that I use for my data analysis. ) | 2025-04-09 03:42:40 -0400 |
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2020 CMPS Survey (This is the survey format of the dataset I use. ) | 2025-04-09 03:42:56 -0400 |
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