Three Essays on the Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Outcomes Open Access
Nesson, Erik Thomas (2012)
Published
Abstract
Abstract
Three Essays on the Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking
Outcomes
This study explores the effects of tobacco control policies on
smoking outcomes and the
differences between selfreported measures of smoking outcomes and
serum cotinine
levels, a biomarker of recent nicotine exposure. The first paper
uses quantile regression
to estimate whether adult smokers' responses to tobacco control
policies change across
the distribution of smoking levels. I find that reductions in
cigarette smoking from
increases in cigarette excise taxes and cigarette prices are
concentrated among the
heaviest smokers. However, using serum cotinine levels, I find
little evidence that
cigarette excise taxes or prices affect smokers' intake of nicotine
at any smoking level. I
directly test whether the amount of nicotine smokers ingest from
each cigarette is
affected by tobacco control policies, and in fact I find evidence
that the heaviest smokers
consume more nicotine from each cigarette in response to higher
cigarette prices. The
second paper estimates the effects of tobacco control policies on
nonsmoking workers'
exposure to secondhand smoke at their jobs. I find that smokefree
air laws reduce
secondhand smoke exposure at work and these reductions translate
into reduced overall
nicotine exposure. I find some evidence that this reduction in
nicotine exposure comes
from reductions in secondhand exposure at work and evidence that
smokefree air laws
reduce secondhand smoke exposure through other pathways as well.
The third paper
examines how adolescent smokers change their smoking behavior in
response to tobacco
control policies. I find that higher cigarette excise taxes are
associated with reduced
nicotine intake among adolescent smokers and these reductions are
robust to controls for
antismoking sentiment and other youth tobacco laws. In fact, I find
some evidence that
more stringent tobacco control policies actually lead to reductions
in the amount of
nicotine that adolescent smokers ingest from each cigarette.
Lastly, I check whether
misreports of smoking status are related to tobacco control
policies, which could bias the
coefficients in models where the dependent variable is
selfreported smoking status. I
find some evidence that measures of youth access laws are related
to misreports.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Preface 1
Chapter 1: Heterogeneity in Adult Smokers' Responses to Tobacco
Control Policies: A Quantile Regression Approach 4
1.1. Introduction 5
1.2. Background 9
1.3. Identification Strategy 16
1.4. Data 18
1.4.1. Tobacco Control Policies 18
1.4.2. NHANES Data 20
1.4.3. Demographics 20
1.4.4. Summary Statistics 22
1.5. OLS Results 23
1.6. Quantile Regression Results 28
1.6.1. Baseline Results 28
1.6.2. Demographic Characteristics 30
1.6.3. Changes in Smoking Behavior 31
1.7. Robustness Checks 35
1.7.1. Generalized Ordered Logit 35
1.7.2. Other Potential Issues 37
1.8. Conclusion 39
Chapter 2: Do Tobacco Control Policies Reduce Secondhand Smoke
Exposure in the Workplace? 74
2.1. Introduction 75
2.2. Background 77
2.3. Data 82
2.4. Methods 87
2.5. Results 89
2.5.1. SelfReported Exposure to Secondhand Smoke 89
2.5.2. Serum Cotinine Levels 92
2.5.3. Connecting SelfReported Exposure to Serum Cotinine Levels
93
2.5.4. Policy Endogeneity 97
2.6. Conclusion 98
Chapter 3: Do Adolescent Smokers Compensate for Higher Cigarette
Taxes? 127
3.1. Introduction 128
3.2. Background 132
3.3. Methodology 135
3.4. Data 136
3.4.1. Tobacco Control Policies 136
3.4.2. NHANES Data 138
3.5. Results 142
3.6. Robustness Checks 144
3.6.1. The Effect of Interview Day on Cotinine Results 144
3.6.2. The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on Misreported
Smoking Status 145
3.6.3. Overall Cotinine Levels 146
3.6.4. Other Potential Issues 147
3.7. Conclusion 148
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Summary Statistics 62
Table 1.2 The Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking
Outcomes 63
Table 1.3 "Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco
Control Policies on The Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked Per
Day" 64
Table 1.4 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco
Control Policies on The Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked Per Day
65
Table 1.5 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco
Control Policies on Serum Cotinine Concentrations 66
Table 1.6 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco
Control Policies on Serum Cotinine Concentrations 67
Table 1.7 SemiElasticities for OLS and Quantile Regression
Coefficients Estimating the Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on
Serum Cotinine Levels and the Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked
per Day 68
Table 1.8 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco
Control Policies on Changes in Smoking Behavior 69
Table 1.9 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco
Control Policies on Changes in Smoking Behavior 70
Table 1.10 Generalized Ordered Logit Regression Results of the
Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on The Average Number of
Cigarettes Smoked Per Day 71
Appendix Table 1.1 Complete Results for Linear Probability, OLS,
and Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco Control
Policies on the Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked Per Day
72
Appendix Table 1.2 Complete Results for Linear Probability, OLS,
and Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Tobacco Control
Policies on Serum Cotinine Concentrations 73
Table 2.1 Number of Hours per Day of SelfReported Secondhand Smoke
Exposure at Work by Occupation 107
Table 2.2 Summary Statistics 108
Table 2.3 "Ordered Logit Estimation of the Effects of Tobacco
Control Policies on NonSmokers' SelfReported Secondhand Smoke
Exposure at Work: Using ANRF SmokeFree Air Law Variables"
109
Table 2.4 "Ordered Logit Estimation of the Effects of Tobacco
Control Policies on NonSmokers' SelfReported Secondhand Smoke
Exposure at Work: Using Project ImpacTeen SmokeFree Air Law
Variables" 110
Table 2.5 "Poisson Estimation of the Effects of Tobacco Control
Policies on NonSmokers' SelfReported Secondhand Smoke Exposure at
Work" 111
Table 2.6 "Logit Estimation of the Effects of Tobacco Control
Policies on NonSmokers' SelfReported Secondhand Smoke Exposure at
Work" 112
Table 2.7 The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on the
Probability of NonSmokers' Secondhand Smoke Exposure: Using ANRF
SmokeFree Air Law Variables 113
Table 2.8 The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on NonSmokers'
Logged Cotinine Concentrations: Using Project ImpacTeen SmokeFree
Air Law Variables 114
Table 2.9 The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on NonSmokers'
Logged Cotinine Concentrations: Using ANRF SmokeFree Air Law
Variables 115
Table 2.10 The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on NonSmokers'
SelfReported Secondhand Smoke Exposure at Work: Using Project
ImpacTeen SmokeFree Air Law Variables 116
Table 2.11a The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on the
Probability of NonSmokers' Secondhand Smoke Exposure: Using ANRF
SmokeFree Air Law Variables and NHANES Sample Weights 117
Table 2.11b The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on the
Probability of NonSmokers' Secondhand Smoke Exposure: Using ANRF
SmokeFree Air Law Variables 118
Table 2.12a The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on the
Probability of NonSmokers' Secondhand Smoke Exposure: Using
Project ImpacTeen SmokeFree Air Law Variables and NHANES Sample
Weights 119
Table 2.12b The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on the
Probability of NonSmokers' Secondhand Smoke Exposure: Using
Project ImpacTeen SmokeFree Air Law Variables 120
Table 2.13 The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on NonSmokers'
Secondhand Smoke Exposure at Work: Using ANRF SmokeFree Air Law
Variables 121
Table 2.14 The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on NonSmokers'
Secondhand Smoke Exposure at Work: Using Project ImpacTeen
SmokeFree Air Law Variables 122
Table 2.15 SelfReported Workplace Secondhand Smoke Exposure: Check
of Policy Lags and Leads 123
Table 2.16 Observable Cotinine Levels: Check of Policy Lags and
Leads 124
Table 2.17 Log Cotinine Levels: Check of Policy Lags and Leads
125
Appendix Table 2.A Classification of Job Categories 126
Table 3.1 Summary Statistics 159
Table 3.2 The Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adolescent
Smoking Outcomes 160
Table 3.3 The Impact of Demographic Characteristics on Adolescent
Smoking Outcomes 161
Table 3.4 The Impact of Tobacco Control Policies On Adolescent
Smoking Outcomes by Interview Day 162
Table 3.5 Comparison of SelfReporting Smoking Status and Serum
Cotinine Levels 163
Table 3.6 Relationship Between Tobacco Control Policies and
Misreporting of Smoking Status 164
Table 3.7 Relationship Between Tobacco Control Policies and High
Cotinine Levels 165
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Time Series of Tobacco Control Policies 19882008
48
Figure 1.2 Kernel Density Plot of Log Cotinine Levels by Smoking
Status 49
Figure 1.3 Scatter Plot of Cigarettes Smoked per Day and Log
Cotinine Levels 50
Figure 1.4 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Cigarette
Prices on The Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked per Day 51
Figure 1.5 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of SmokeFree
Air Laws on The Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked per Day
52
Figure 1.6 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Cigarette
Prices on Serum Cotinine Levels 53
Figure 1.7 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of SmokeFree
Air Laws on Serum Cotinine Levels 54
Figure 1.8 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Demographic
Variables on The Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked Per Day
55
Figure 1.9 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Demographic
Variables on Serum Cotinine Levels 56
Figure 1.10 Smoking Intensity and Cigarettes Smoked Per Day
57
Figure 1.11 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of Cigarette
Prices on Changes in Smoking Behavior 58
Figure 1.12 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of SmokeFree
Air Laws on Changes in Smoking Behavior 59
Figure 1.13 Quantile Regression Results of the Impact of The
Average Number of Cigarettes Smoked per Day on Serum Cotinine
Levels 60
Figure 1.14 Cotinine Levels for Smokers by NHANES Survey Wave
61
Figure 2.1 Tabulation of SelfReported Secondhand Smoke Exposure at
Work by Job Category 105
Figure 2.2 Distribution of Observable Logged Cotinine
Concentrations 106
Figure 3.1 Timeseries of Tobacco Control Policies 19912006
156
Figure 3.2 Graph of Logged Serum Density by Smoking Status
157
Figure 3.3 Scatterplot of Serum Cotinine Levels and Cigarettes
Smoked per Day 158
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