What Explains the Far Right Vote in Three European Democracies? Público

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate reasons why far-right parties have succeeded in recent parliamentary elections in France, Belgium, and Sweden. The methodology used in this research is quantitative, with an analysis of these countries' electoral history used to explore the relationship between moderation and center right party strength and far right electoral success. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between individual predictors (the independent variable), like experience of unemployment, and whether one individual votes for a far right party (the dependent variable), this paper used the statistical program STATA, with the primary data set coming from the European Social Survey. Additionally, STATA and the European Social Survey were used to explore regional contexts and individual vote for far right parties. Results from the nationally aggregate data analysis and individual predictors suggest a statistically significant relationship between an individual's experience of unemployment and vote choice for far right parties. Results from the regional analysis proved inconclusive. These results suggest a need for further research into the theory of moderation and far right party electoral success, as well as the relationship between attitudes of immigration and individual vote choice for far right wing parties.

Table of Contents

Introduction..............................................1

Literature Review......................................3

Electoral History: Moderation...................8

Theory: Moderation...................................8

Hypothesis: Moderation...........................13

Background..............................................14

Analysis....................................................21

Far Right Vote Theory...............................26

Hypotheses...............................................28

Research Design & Methods.....................29

Data Analysis............................................34

National Aggregates.................................34

Regional Context......................................46

Conclusion & Implications.......................56

Appendix...................................................60

References................................................73

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	BA
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, General Political Science, International Relations
Palabra Clave	Vote France, Belgium, Sweden Far Right Parties
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Remington, Thomas F, Emory University
Committee Members	Tworzecki, Hubert, Emory University Amdur, Kathryn E, Emory University

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