Zoonotic Transmission Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Urban Guangzhou, China Public
Chen, Dehao (Spring 2018)
Published
Abstract
Background: Though Guangzhou city is not a region with a high burden of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) comparing with other areas in China, outbreaks still exist in the city due to the existence of urban rodents and a large urban population at risk. In this study, descriptive temporal analysis and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis were performed on reported HFRS cases and rodent surveys with the goal of identifying risk areas for public health interventions and ascertain the main drivers of their occurrence.
Methods: Period prevalence and the number of positive cases at different geographical scales of the city during 2008- 2016 were calculated and summarized using HFRS and rodent-borne disease surveillance data. Spatial point pattern analyses were conducted to describe global and local clustering effects of different measurements of human HFRS and rodent hantavirus at old-town and whole-city levels.
Results: Geographical distributions of HFRS cases and traps with hantavirus antibody-carrying rodents from 2008 to 2016 were mapped at the city and old-district levels in the aspect of the crude number of positive cases and period prevalence. The weighted K-function suggested that no global clustering effect existed for both the rodent and human cases in different scales of the city. Using Gi*(d) statistic, 22 significant local clusters of high infection (P<0.05) with different radius were discovered for the human and rodent surveillance data, and a zoonotic link was built based on the overlay of clusters of the two species. Also, we described seasonal occurrence of HFRS in the city.
Conclusion: The applications of descriptive temporal analysis, GIS and spatial point pattern analysis, offer ways to quantify zoonotic hantavirus risks across different times and spatial scales and to further recognize putative environmental determinants potentially influential in increased disease risks.
Table of Contents
. 24
Introduction.........................................1
Methods...............................................5
Results.................................................9
Discussion..........................................13
Conclusions and Recommendations..16
Bibliography.......................................17
Tables & Figures................................19
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